Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong prediction & odds

Bantamweights Petr Yan and Song Yadong will do battle on the main card of UFC 299 in what is one of the most underrated matchups on a stacked fight card.

Once one of the most dominant fighters in the world, Petr Yan is hoping to make a statement this weekend and get his name back in the conversation for a chance to regain his title.

Song Yadong seems to have been in the UFC forever and he’s still only 26 years old. This is the biggest matchup of his career and like Yan, a win this weekend puts him one or two fights out from a shot at the title.

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below:

Betting Odds

The line for this one is pretty even with Yan being favored slightly:

Petr Yan: -120 (BetUS)
Song Yadong: -110 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Petr Yan makes his return back to the octagon after a brutal stretch over the last three years. Yan’s still only 31 years old with a UFC record of 8-4 with all four of those losses coming in his last five fights.

Yan is a boxing expert. He has a very disciplined guard and utilizes intelligent head movement and footwork to minimize damage. He’s a slow starter and willing to give away the first round to gather reads and come out strong after round one.

When he does let his hands go, he’s impressive to watch. He’s very good at luring his opponent in with his guard before ducking off the center line and exploding into a well-placed combination of two or three strikes. He doesn’t have one obvious tendency with his striking; he looks for opportunities and is very quick to attack those openings when they arise.

While his boxing is the main driver to his success, his kicks are just as effective. We saw him work the body with punishing kicks to the mid-section against Sandhagen and will attack the calf as well. He’s not huge on targeting the head with kicks (most shots upstairs are punches) but he still attacks different levels extremely effectively.

We don’t see a ton of offensive wrestling from Yan anymore but he used it effectively against O’Malley. He likes his trips from the clinch and when he’s on top, he’s good at controlling position to look for ground n pound.

While the high guard of yan protects him from damage to the head, it can leave him vulnerable to the body and leg. We saw Sandhagen have a lot of success with his body work early in his fight against Petr and the legs are usually open as well. Once Yan starts to open up however, he’s usually good at finding the timing on his opponent and is able to land to the head as they go to target the body.

His opponent will be Song Yadong. He’s been on the UFC roster since 2017 and is still only 26 years old. He’s 21-7-1 as a pro and even more impressively, 10-2 in the UFC. He’s coming off back to back Fight Night headliners where he looked dominant against Ricky Simon and Chris Gutierrez.

Song is an explosive fighter that relies on landing big powerful shots. He has power in both his hands and kicks but his main threat is the boxing. He doesn’t utilize a lot of movement. As a counter striker, he likes to take the middle of the octagon and wait on his opponent’s offense. He’ll batter the lead leg with calf kicks and when they do come in, he unleashes his power shots. He doesn’t throw anything lightly, everything is full power or he doesn’t throw it.

He doesn’t often shoot for takedowns but he’s been tested defensively over the course of his UFC career. As he’s gained more experience, his takedown defense has improved and with how strong he is, it’s very hard to get him to the ground. Part of it is his defensive reaction time. He’s very quick when he needs to get out of range and he doesn’t take long to reset his feet and fire the counter.

While he’s explosive with his striking, Song can be a bit wild at times. It’s much easier for him to get away with because his hands are so fast, but he swings a bit wide. While Song had some great moments in his fight against Cory Sandhagen, it showed that he isn’t the most technically sound boxer. It’ll be interesting to see how he holds up against a more powerful, yet equally technical striker in Yan.

On one of the best cards on paper in recent memory, this fight stands out as one to watch for me. Song Yadong is one of the most dangerous fighters at 135 lbs but he’s yet to face anyone who brings the combination of power and technique like Yan does. Yan has some of the cleanest boxing in the UFC and he’s an expert at executing intelligent gameplans against high level fighters. If he can draw out some of the wild blitzes from Song, I think he has a great chance to land his short combinations and be out of range before Song is able to counter.

For Song, it’s going to come down to his ability to land enough against the defensively responsible Yan. Song relies on his opponent to make mistakes a lot and while he’s very good at taking advantage of this, you can’t rely on someone like Petr Yan to screw up. He’s going to need to be aggressive and keep his head off the centerline when they start throwing in the pocket. At range, he needs to be spamming kicks as much as or more than Yan does. The low kicks are a specialty for both guys so whoever is able to establish it early will hold a big advantage.

Prediction

This is a tough matchup as both men have a path to victory. If Song is able to find the mark around the high guard of Yan, he’ll be able to negate one of Yan’s best traits in his striking defense. He’ll need to be crisp with his striking and not be careless with his entries.

Song’s quick to throw the first shot but he’s not always the fastest with his follow ups and in those moments, Yan will likely have his chance to fire off his own combo. I think the matchup favors Yan and as long as he doesn’t come out slow, he should be able to outstrike Song over fifteen minutes.

Prediction: Petr Yan to win (-120 on BetUS)

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below: