Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena prediction & odds

Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena will face off on this weekend’s UFC 299 main card.

Jack Della Maddalena, the #11 ranked welterweight in the UFC, is 6-0 in the promotion and is still only 27 years old. Gilbert “Durinho” Burns is ten years older and sits seven spots higher in the rankings. Burns is 15-6 in the UFC and is 3-2 in his last five fights.

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Betting Odds

Della Maddalena opened at nearly pick’em but has steadily grown as the favorite over Burns.

Jack Della Maddalena: -155 (BetUS)
Gilbert Burns: +140 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Three-name Jack is an Australian prospect quickly turned contender because of his high level striking, specifically his boxing. Della Maddalena moves well, switches stances, and throws in combination with both intelligence and power.

He works the body and head in most of his combinations, rarely bites on feints, regularly gets opponents to bite on his feints, and lands the right strike at the right time.

Despite not having exceptional size or speed, JDM regularly lands on opponents who may be more naturally gifted than him. He does so because of his intelligent footwork, ability to fight behind a jab, and use cautious pressure to time his strikes for the right moment.

In short, he is about as clean of a boxer as there is in the welterweight division. The stats say it all: 7.2 landed to 4.8 absorbed significant strikes at a 53% accuracy clip, which includes three knockout wins.

Della Maddalena is not a perfect fighter, though no one is. His takedown defense is stout, but his defensive grappling is a question. JDM is an ex-rugby player with strong legs and a stout knowledge of how to defend a takedown. However, once down, JDM struggles off of his back and has been put in compromising positions on the mat.

Burns is about as complete of a mixed martial artist as there is in the welterweight division. He is a dynamic striker with big power, elite jiu-jitsu, and insane durability. However, his wrestling game seems to be a step behind the rest of his elite set of skills.

While Burns is a capable wrestler, he struggles to get opponents down to the mat who can match his strength and athleticism. I say “and” because if an opponent can match one but not the other, then Burns has found success. If Burns can get an opponent down, they need to be extremely careful of the black belt who is capable of combining his athleticism and strength to fluidly manhandle opponents on the mat.

More often, though, Burns chooses to abandon his wrestling in favor of his fan-friendly striking. Because of Burns’ chin and big power, a firefight often favors the #4 ranked welterweight. Burns is able to push a pace, go to war, and come out the other side bloodied, battered, and victorious. H

is age and tendency to get into wars, tough, may be catching up to him. While Burns is durable, he has been rocked and wobbled in recent fights.

Prediction

JDM has the boxing and power to not only give Burns fits on the feet but truly rock and hurt him. Burns is about as tough as they come, but his chin has started to fade as the wars have piled up. JDM carries real power and is capable of finding the off-switch at any moment.

However, if Burns gets on top, JDM will need to be ultra-cautious on the mat. Not only is Burns miles beyond Della Maddalena in the grappling department, but Della Maddalena has also been in compromising positions before, namely when defending the arm triangle. Burns has a killer, well, pretty much all killer submissions, but a killer arm triangle specifically. If it hits the mat, three-name Jack will need to mind his P’s and Q’s.

I think this fight will be close; but, uniquely, each fighter has the tools to put the other out. I lean Della Maddalena here, expecting his boxing volume and damage to edge out Burns for three rounds.

But, at -155, the price is nearly at the peak. If Della Maddalena clears -170, I wouldn’t argue with a play on Burns. For now, though, at -155, I’ll side with JDM to land the bigger blows, maybe even the knockout, on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Jack Della Maddalena to win (-155 at BetUS)

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below: