This weekend, #13-ranked Karine Silva tries to continue climbing the rankings when she takes on #12 Ariane Lipski. Both women hail from Brazil and entered the Flyweight division’s top 15 in their last bouts. Silva most recently defeated Maryna Moroz, avenging a loss a decade before their rematch. Silva was able to secure a guillotine choke in round two, bringing her UFC record to a clean 3-0.
Fans last watched Lipski dispatch Casey O’Neill at UFC 296 via second-round armbar. The former National Muay Thai champion has come a long way, proving she is a force to be reckoned with in all aspects of the game, both striking and grappling.
Betting Odds
Oddsmakers are backing Karine Silva as a -155 favorite over Lipski.
Fight Breakdown
This is a tremendously competitive fight, as both women have opposite specialties yet are also pose threats everywhere. Karine Silva is a stoppage machine with all 17 of her victories coming by way of finish, 8 KO/TKOs and 9 submissions. The only time she saw the final bell was one of four losses over her career.
Although she is dangerous everywhere. She is particularly known for her high-level jiu-jitsu. She has very good timing on her takedowns, shooting double legs behind her punches and underneath her opponents. She also does a good job of parlaying her initial takedown attempts into clinch exchanges where she completes from high undercooks and body looks. She puts a lot of emphasis on controlling her opponent’s neck when maintaining top pressure, which allows her great control and puts her in a position to attack chokes regularly. watch for her guillotine and D’Arce chokes, but she will readily sit back on submissions and give up top position if she feels they are close.
In terms of her striking, she has evident power in her hands, especially her wide left hook and looping right straight. While she is typically very sharp and aggressive, she does tend to over-extend, sometimes, trying to reach her opponent both with her long-range boxing and some of her kicks. She stands in the conventional stance but does most of her best kicking work off of the lead leg, shuffle stepping to attack the inside low kick and body kick.
Ariane Lipski is primarily a striker, and is nicknamed the “Queen of Violence” for a reason. She has a plodding Muay Thai style but does an equally successful job moving forward and circling around the cage. This is because although she likes to press the action, she is a very high-level counter striker, looking to bait out a gap she can roll with and throw longer combinations back or slip and blitz. She likes to lead with the right hand to set up both her left hook or her left roundhouse to the head and body.
Both Lipski and Silva have power for the flyweight division, and both are quick and sharp in exchanges. The biggest difference will be Lipski’s variety of shots and volume, throwing four to five back every time Silva comes in with one or two. However, Lipski has to be very careful about over-exposing herself in the pocket to Silva’s takedowns.
We have seen in her most recent bouts that Lipski’s takedown defense has come a long way, as well as her Whizzer counter throws when she ends up in clinch situations. More prominently however, she has to punish Silva for failed attempts, Lipski does a good job of using failed takedowns to come up into a Thai clinch where she brutalizes the body with knees before separation. Lipski does have an unusual submission game, snatching opportunistic submissions at odd angles, but in the difference in grappling pedigree, I doubt they will be as available as they have been in the past.
Prediction
Ultimately, I think we see a little bit of everything in this fight. Lipski should look to keep the fight standing, however when given grappling opportunities she is one to take them. I think that likewise Silva will have no qualms about exchanging with Lipski, however to find her easiest route to success she needs a takedown.
Lipski does have more experience in the UFC, although they both have a lot of career fights, and Lipski has more experience seeing the judges. I think she should look to invest in attacking the legs and body and piling up on volume knowing the deeper waters aid her. Both women will have their moments, but I think over time Lipski starts to creep ahead to a decision or late finish, especially as an underdog.
Prediction: Ariane Lipski to win (+125 at BetUS)