Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page prediction & odds | UFC 299 1

When it was announced that Bellator had been acquired by PFL last year, fans instantly began speculating which big names the UFC could acquire during the transition.

Michael “Venom” Page may be the most anticipated signing to the UFC from Bellator since Michael Chandler in 2021 and has largely been heralded as one of the most exciting strikers in the sport.

With a background in traditional martial arts, clips of MVP’s sensational tornado kick, flying knee, and other over-the-top knockouts have gone viral over the course of his career. However, whether or not his unique style can translate against the world’s best in the biggest organization remains to be seen.

His first assignment will come this weekend when he takes on Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland. The outspoken American who has become famous for berating his opponents with talk while he looks to knock them cold.

For a long time, he was the most active fighter in the UFC, with 21 of his 25 pro wins coming by stoppage. He is currently coming off of two wins over Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michael Chiesa and a loss to Jack Della Maddalena.

Not only would defeating MVP this Saturday put him back on track in the win column, but it would also be a massive feather in the cap, having set back one of the biggest debuts in the UFC this year.

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Betting Odds

Oddsmakers have the match fairly close, with MVP sitting even and Kevin Holland as a slight favorite at -130.

  • Kevin Holland: -130 (BetUS)
  • Michael Page: Ev (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Kevin Holland comes from a kung-fu and jiu-jitsu background, but don’t expect any grappling in this one. Holland has great boxing and knockout power behind those punches. Holland likes a tricky low sidekick to the knee and will use that same hop forward to engage with that kick or step-down boxing, making it hard to react to both levels as he moves.

Holland also likes to play with the lead hand, trapping and punching or elbowing over the top. When Holland is on the defensive he likes to float back, leaning away and utilizing a sort of Philly shell-esk guard. In a similar look watch for him to lean away with the check left hook.

MVP utilizes a low guard and long wide stance. He is constantly hopping, and moving back and forth to disguise his entries, he should be able to pick apart Holland’s performance against Stephen Thompson knowing he shares so many elements of Thompson’s karate footwork and movement.

Unlike Thompson however, MVP is much more flashy in his explosions forward and generally larger in his movements. He will also fight behind that lead sidekick to the body to manage distance, which Holland did have some trouble with, but we will also see MVP burst in leading with his punches more often.

His punches come from below the hip making them harder to predict, however inside the pocket, he will be substantially more vulnerable to boxing than Holland. Often, it’s his footwork and feints that freeze his opponents and allow him to lead the exchanges and break the distance gap on his terms. Other than Douglas Lima, few of MVP’s Bellator resume are probably at the level of Holland, so in terms of how tentative this makes the UFC vet remains to be seen.

Page does have a habit of bursting in with the right hand looping over the top which is extremely effective in sneaking in over the guard, but has also been the reason multiple opponents have taken him down. Again, there is a lot of doubt that Holland will elect to wrestle, so Page may actually be more even comfortable throwing.


I do believe that Kevin Holland has the capabilities to win; however, I think he will sacrifice some of his options to put on a show. He has superior grappling, especially in terms of submission ability, and he could exploit MVP’s comfort on the feet to find takedowns. I also think that if Holland can dictate and put on a higher pace, as well as break that distance to stifle MVP’s movement, he has a huge chance.

That being said, I do not think Holland will grapple, I think, just as in the Stephen Thompson and Jack Della Maddalena fight, he will actively deny his own wrestling opportunities. Very few can beat MVP in a striking match, and we have already seen that he struggled with karate-style distance control in the past. As an underdog, slight as it may be I think MVP is a good value in his debut given Holland’s readiness to entertain MVP’s style of fight.

Pick: Michael Page to win (Ev)

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