Pedro Munhoz vs Kyler Phillips prediction & odds

Pedro Munhoz takes on Kyler Phillips in a matchup worthy of a main card spot but will take place on the prelims of UFC 299 this Saturday.

Munhoz is a staple of the rankings at 135 lbs and will look to play gatekeeper again against Phillips who is looking to make a run at the top ten this year.

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below:

Betting Odds

Pedro Munhoz hasn’t closed as a favorite since 2020 and he’ll be the underdog yet again this weekend

Kyler Phillips: -210 (BetUS)
Pedro Munhoz: +170 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Pedro Munhoz is the definition of a UFC veteran. He’s fought 18 times since debuting 10 years ago at UFC 170 and is 10-8 in that time. He’s fought the who’s who of the 135 lbs division including Jose Aldo, Dom Cruz, Sean O’Malley, Chito Vera and two bouts against Aljamain Sterling. He’s one of the toughest opponents in the division and has been a go-to test for the UFC when they have an up-and-comer.

Munhoz is a smaller bantamweight and fights as such. He keeps a grueling pace, coming forward with pressure, feints and leg kicks. He’s never going to get outworked in a fight; if his opponent throws a strike, you can bet he’s going to attempt to answer immediately. He uses a ton of stance switches and is constantly blasting kicks from both sides and isn’t afraid to string boxing combos together from both southpaw and conventional.

He’s at his best when he’s using his quick feet to prevent his opponent from finding their range and firing off dozens of kicks to the leg, body and head. This usually forces his opponents to close distance more frantically which allows Munhoz to explode into his punches as they come into his shorter range.

He can struggle when he’s up against a much longer fighter who doesn’t have as hard of a time finding their jab range. The jab can eat him up and with his aggressive style, he begins to look for opportunities to time his counter over top of the jab. Against higher level strikers, he’s less successful in finding these openings as they begin to follow up the jab with the cross and landing as Munhoz looks to engage.

While Munhoz is a high level grappler, we haven’t seen him utilize it too much lately. He’s usually looking to land heavy strikes when he gets in tight instead of shooting for takedowns and it’s a wrinkle I wish he’d add back into his game. He’s not the most efficient at securing takedowns (only 19% in the UFC), but that constant threat of changing levels as well as the grind of wrestling along the fence would benefit him over the course of a fight.

Kyler Phillips is a high level prospect with a fan friendly style. He’s quick and has great footwork to keep moving around the outside of the octagon. He pops in and out with a snappy jab which is eventually followed up by the right hand. He likes to lead with the high kick in these lunging entries as well. He’s a very technical striker with good shot selection and timing.

Phillips has a diverse striking arsenal. When he’s at range, he loves to utilize his timing to land the jab and right hand. When he moves in close, he’s very good at finding spots to land his elbows from the clinch break. He likes to throw big, flashy techniques like spinning wheel kicks and flying knees as well but they haven’t been all that effective in the UFC.

They do contribute to his cardio issues however. While he’s gotten it somewhat under control, the gas tank of Phillips is usually running low somewhere in the second round. The quick, consistent movement is gone by the midway point of round two and he becomes more willing to sit on the cage. He’s still effective here with his well-timed strikes and takedown attempts, but it’s far from ideal for a fighter who looks so dominant early on.

Phillips is a BJJ black belt but what’s overlooked is his wrestling. He’s very good at timing his takedowns and doesn’t give up if it isn’t there initially. He’s quick to find control of an ankle, wrist or any part of his opponent that he can use for leverage. When he’s on the ground, he’s very active and cares little for control time. He’s working ground n pound until a submission arises or he loses position and is forced to scramble. He’s just as active off his back, looking for sweeps and submission attempts to force scrambles where he thrives.

This a very intriguing matchup. While Phillips is longer and the more flashy fighter, Munhoz brings a pressure and toughness that Phillips is going to have to find an answer for. Munhoz is capable of pushing a high pace over all three rounds and thrives on breaking his opponent with it. We’ve seen Phillips gas out in the UFC and when he gets tired, he’s more willing to put himself against the cage and is hittable. He’s still quick to move, but when his opponent follows him with strikes, he’s still getting hit and rarely fires back until he’s able to find space and set his feet.

For Phillips, he’s going to need to keep himself at range or fully in the clinch. Ideally, he’s able to pump out the jab and use his footwork to avoid the entries of Munhoz who will be at a seven inch reach disadvantage. Munhoz can struggle to find clean entries into range, even when his opponent is up against the fence. If Kyler can stay agile enough in two of three rounds, he may be able to make Munhoz swing and miss while working the long jab/cross.

Prediction

It’ll be interesting to see how the leg kick affects Kyler’s movement. Munhoz is always throwing it and we haven’t seen much defense against the kick from Phillips. Once Phillips gets flat-footed in the second and third round, Munhoz is going to find more and more opportunities to land it.

While I’m confident that Munhoz will find spots for the leg kicks, I’m not sure if he’ll have other weapons. If he struggles to find the target like he did against Vera, it’s going to be a long night. I don’t think Munhoz will have a path to victory with his wrestling unless Phillips gives up the takedown to chase an ill-advised submission attempt. That means he’s going to need to rely on pushing Phillips back and landing his punches when he blitzes.

Regardless of the winner, I like the over in this one. Both guys are durable and have good movement to limit striking exchanges if needed. I like the odds on Munhoz however as the much more experienced fighter.

Prediction: Fight to go Over 2.5 round (-280 on BetUS)

Best Bet: Pedro Munhoz to win (+170 on BetUS)

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below: