Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk prediction & odds

Michel Pereira and Michal Oleksiejczuk will go head-to-head this weekend at UFC 299.

Michel “Demolidor” Pereira is currently unranked but on a six-fight winning streak dating back to 2020. Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk, also unranked, is 3-2 in his last five but has only lost to ranked fighters.

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below:

Betting Odds

Pereira opened as a slight favorite and has mostly remained steady throughout the week.

Michel Pereira: -150 (BetUS)
Michal Oleksiejczuk: +120 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Pereira made a name for himself because of his unique, hyper-athletic, and sometimes self-destructive fighting style. Pereira implements a blend of striking style that includes, and often highlights, Capoeira- Brazilian Dance Fighting.

It takes a special athlete to weaponize Capoeira effectively in the cage, and Pereira has the athletic ability to do so. He regularly throws spinning wheel kicks, Show Time kicks, flying knees, Superman punches, Imanari rolls, and even backflips. His fighting style can best be described as acrobatic.

Interestingly, though, while Pereira will still implement the imaginative in the cage, he has dialed back his risk-taking and focused on minute winning late in rounds. He’s done so primarily through wrestling. Pereira’s striking is as dynamic and fluid as ever; but, what has really helped him build his 6-fight win streak has been his offensive wrestling late in rounds.

Pereira will regularly shoot takedowns with a minute or two remaining in the round, hold his opponent down, and end up on top. The takedown is not necessarily designed to win the fight but instead to win the round by scoring important points.

Oleksiejczuk is a tremendously powerful boxer who is hyper-aggressive early and can end the fight in an instant. All but one of his UFC wins has come by 1^st round knockout. Oleksiejczuk is typically a flat-footed boxer who looks to feint bob and weave his way into range where he can unload heavy hooks in the pocket. If he gets in too close and can’t generate power, Oleksiejczuk is capable of clinching up well by using his upper body and grip strength to hold his opponent steady.

While Oleksiejczuk can land some damage from the clinch, he is more dangerous when he separates and explodes with a heavy combination on the break. Often, opponents are exposed following the clinch, and an exposed chin in front of Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous thing. “Hussar,” though, tends to struggle as the fight goes on.

Specifically, he struggles against fluid-moving range strikers and wrestlers. Essentially, Oleksiejczuk is deadly at his range but struggles when an opponent is outside of his range or when an opponent can crash his range and wrestle.

Prediction

Oleksiejczuk’s power is dangerous, especially early; so, if Pereira zigs when he should have zagged, Oleksiejczuk has the prowess to make Pereira pay. However, Oleksiejczuk has only won 1 fight that exited round 1 in his UFC career.

That fight was a narrow and controversial split decision. Moreover, Oleksiejczuk has historically struggled with both fluid moving strikers capable of keeping range and wrestlers. Pereira should have the movement, range, wrestling, and minute-winning ability to take a lead the later the fight goes on. I expect Pereira to strike from range early and wrestle late, both in fight and in the rounds. If he does this, Pereira’s movement and offensive wrestling should be enough to get the win on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Pereira to win (-150 at BetUS)

Check out all of our UFC 299 predictions below: