Polish lightweight standout, Mateusz Gamrot, is looking to extend his win streak to three this weekend against his biggest opponent to date, the legendary former lightweight champion, Rafael dos Anjos. The former KSW double-champ came away with a controversial win this past September, where his opponent Rafael Fiziev suffered a devastating ACL tear in the first round.
Nonetheless, he has a tough test ahead of him in Rafael dos Anjos, who’s shown time and time again that age and weight classes are just numbers in the face of his skill and experience. It’s sure to be a technical bout between two of the best grapplers; not just in the lightweight division, but in the history of the UFC.
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Betting Odds
Being the younger, more active fighter; it’s no surprise that Gamrot enters this bout as a significant betting favorite.
Fight Breakdown
In a lot of ways, this is a classic BJJ vs. wrestling matchup. Gamrot constantly pressures forward, looking to shoot deep into his opponent’s legs or cinch up a clinch against the cage. Conversely, dos Anjos likes to fight on his back foot, looking to counter his opponents and unafraid to get taken down. Once on top, both are extraordinarily technical, constantly outworking their opponents and advancing position. I’d say Gamrot has the edge in terms of ground and pound, whereas dos Anjos has sneakier submission threats, but realistically, both men are good at making adjustments and capitalizing on their opponent’s mistakes.
In terms of striking, I’d say dos Anjos has a slight advantage, just because of his former wins and résumé, but this is also where age could come into play. His previous bout against Vicente Luque showed him to be a bit more timid than his previous outings, but back-to-back-to-back wars with Paul Felder, Renato Moicano, and Rafael Fiziev before then would prove otherwise. Still, he only engages in firefights when his opponents make it one, which I just don’t see Gamrot doing.
I think most of the exchanges on the feet are going to wind up leading to clinches, with both guys most likely trying to keep the other at bay against the cage. Here, I see the fight leaning in Gamrot’s favor. I think that the cardio and lateral style of his cage wrestling are well-suited to deal with the lanky, adaptable frame of dos Anjos. He’s patient, but always active; constantly making his opponents work just a little bit more than him and carry his weight. If dos Anjos wants a win, he needs to take the center of the octagon and dictate where the clinch battle starts, using his Thai clinch to control and wear down Gamrot. Dos Anjos should be looking to disrupt Gamrot’s rhythm and avoid getting drawn into a grinding battle against the cage where Gamrot thrives.
Prediction and Betting Guide
I’m going with Gamrot here, just because I think he’s going to outpace dos Anjos. I think that, in terms of fundamentals and skillset, dos Anjos has everything it takes to deal with him, but Gamrot simply has the intangibles in his favor. He’s younger, quicker, holds up better in the latter rounds, and, most importantly, has momentum behind his career. I still don’t think he’ll score the finish, though.
Still, however, dos Anjos has made all of his recent fights competitive, despite his age, and I really wouldn’t be shocked to see a surprise submission if Gamrot isn’t careful.
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot via Decision (-175 at BetUS)
Lines to Watch: Gamrot via KO/TKO (+350) or dos Anjos via Submission (+1600)
