Welcome to S#*%ty UFC Predictions, guaranteed to get you a right pick eventually based on the laws of probability.
Order UFC 281
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is tonight! Watch every UFC 281 fight here.
- Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. Yes, Joaquin Buckley’s crazy knockout of Impa Kasanganay was incredible, but it will never undo the fact that Ross Pearson was knocked out by a Rolling Thunder last year on the regional scene. He will have to live with that shame forever.
Today we’re breaking down the Ortega vs. Zombie main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.
1 out of 5 is a rough start after being back from the break. Then again, I did call for a dude to win via disqualification, so maybe if you’re reading this you take a step back and wonder if I’m actually trying to predict the winners of these fights with any sort of accuracy. Just some food for thought.
We saw that people were happy we stopped doing the half-article/half-video breakdown, so we’re gonna be doing a full article this week and we’ll add in some videos for fun in addition to this in a week or two. Again, thanks for making me do more work.
Let’s dive in!
Thomas Almeida vs. Jonathan Martinez
After almost three years on the shelf, Thomas Almeida is making his return to the octagon against Jonathan Martinez. A highly touted 20-0 prospect before getting knocked out by Cody Garbrandt back in 2016, Almeida’s career has taken a bit of nose dive since that first loss, with “Thominhas” going 1-2 in his last three bouts. Having been sidelined with an eye injury that required surgery, the 29-year-old Brazillian will be looking to make a statement in his return that hopefully doesn’t sound like a plea to the UFC that he should keep his job.
Jonathan “Dragon” Martinez on the other hand will be looking to build some momentum off of Almeida’s name. The 26-year-old was last seen landing a flying knee knockout against Frankie Sanez this past August, rebounding back from a close split decision loss to Andrew Ewell at UFC 247. This will be Martinez’s third fight in 2020, with his entire five-fight UFC career taking place while Almeida has been out injured.
This is a tough one because both guys have three losses to their name and while Almeida once had the hype train behind him, those days are long gone. While I’m inclined to give “Thominhas” the edge here, Martinez has been consistent with losing a fight after two consecutive wins. Seeing as how “Dragon” needs another win here to keep that pattern, it looks like Almeida’s career is destined to decline further.
Martinez via R3 TKO
Claudio Silva vs. James Krause
Bumped up to the main card following a contract dispute between the UFC and PFL over some dude named Ante Delija, Claudio “Hannibal” Silva will take on “The” James Krause in a welterweight scrap that has little ramifications. Silva has not lost a bout since his professional MMA debut all the way back in 2007, though he ends up fighting once a year at best. Krause was riding a nice 5-fight win streak before Trevin Giles pulled the ol’ “My friend’s a judge!” routine and stole a split decision win over “The” at UFC 247.
This is another short-notice bout for Krause, who ended up paying the price last time out albeit via nefarious circumstances. It was also recently brought to light that Krause is currently coaching 13 other UFC fighters, meaning his attention is most certainly divided between his own training and becoming the next Duane Ludwig. Silvia has beaten some recognizable guys in his day, including forever contender Leon Edwards, but I’m also pretty sure he just does this as a side gig given how active he is inside the cage.
After careful review, I think deep down “The” is just trying to get into that Duane Ludwig spot as quickly as possible. The easiest way for him to do that is to go out and lose by close split decision again and get so fed up with the process that he’ll hang them up. As Luke Rockhold once said, “Conceive, Believe, Don’t Actually Achieve—just go be a model bro.”
Silva via Unanimous Decision
Jimmy Crute vs. Modestas Bukauskas
In a light heavyweight matchup that might not end up sucking, Jimmy “The Brute” Crute takes on Modestas “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas. Crute is coming off of a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk, while Bukauskas got a first-round retirement victory over Andreas Michalidis this past July. Both men seem to follow the “Finish or be finished” mantra of combat sports, as it’s only gone to the judges four times in their combined 25 professional bouts.
With Modestas’s nickname relying on the recognition of the Baltic states as being independent countries, this whole fight is going to come down to whether or not Crute was a fan of the Whitlam government in the 1970s. If Crute didn’t recognize the Baltic countries incorporation into the Soviet Union and sees Bukauskas as a fighter who resisted communist rule, then he’ll take him seriously and should get the finish here. If Crute favored Labor during that time period and thinks that the Baltic countries only regained their independence following the Soviet Union’s collapse in late 1991, then he’ll probably think that “The Baltic Gladiator” is a pushover from a country who has only been independent for around 30 years. That type of overconfidence will get him finished.
Given that Crute’s nickname is “The Brute” I doubt he’s given the subject much thought, but I don’t’ see him favoring Whitlam. I think that he gets it done here in the first round.
What’s that? This has been a really out there tangent that wasn’t even that funny?
Yeah well, too bad. You already read it.
Crute via R1 TKO
Jessica Andrade vs. Katlyn Chookigan
In the newly promoted co-main event, Katlyn Chookagian takes on Jessica Andrade to determine who Valentina Shevchenko gets to beat up next. Andrade has decided that a third weight class is the charm after losing a close split decision to Rose Namajunas, making her 125lbs. debut. “Blonde Fighter” is riding high after defeating the older Shevchenko sister this past May, in retaliation for getting beat down by “Bullet” at UFC 247 (Man that PPV comes up a lot in this one huh?).
Neither fighter gives any obvious insights in the way of MMA math here, but if you dig deep enough you can glean a couple of gems. Chookagian has been winning one fewer bout in between losses consistently, picking up four victories after her first defeat against Liz Carmouche, then only three before falling to Jessica Eye, etc. Meanwhile, Andrade is on the first losing streak of her career, which creates a new trend despite those losses coming from arguably the two top strawweights in the world right now. Considering “Bate Estaca” was able to hold her own all the way up at bantamweight back in the day, however, I’m guessing “Blonde Fighter” is about to get that beating she was looking for a little early.
Andrade via R2 TKO
Brian Ortega vs. Korean Zombie
In the main event, we have an important featherweight showdown between Brian “T-City” Ortega and Korean “Chan Sung Jung” Zombie. Ever since losing to Yair Rodriguez by buzzer-beater death elbow, Zombie has come back from the dead with a renewed vigor for knocking out 145 lbs. fighters who stand across from him in the octagon. Having teamed up with coach Eric Albarracin, Zombie hopes to elevate his already scary skill set to that of UFC featherweight champion, while avoiding turning into an awkward cringe-monster like fellow stablemates Henry Cejudo and Paulo Costa.
After nearly two years away from the cage, “T-City” is looking to throw himself back into title contention quickly by taking on the man whose manager he slapped at UFC 248. Ortega was last seen doing his best Korean Zombie impression when fighting then featherweight champion Max Holloway, eating copious amounts of shots to the face while continually moving forward. While that gambit didn’t work out in his favor, He has shown the ability to pull off wild submissions and crazy comebacks, making him dangerous at any point in a fight.
Both guys have beat up Renato Moicano and Frankie Edgar, though Zombie has beaten both up in a faster time. Normally I’d give Zombie a huge boost because this fight card is weeks away from Halloween and thus his nickname powers intensify, but there is another UFC fight card scheduled on All Hallows Eve so it somewhat hurts him here (Really UFC? You couldn’t book him two weeks later so it would be pretty sweet for him to fight on Halloween? Boooo and not the ghost kind). That being said, I honestly think Ortega is going to try and do his best Zombie impression again, and it’s gonna end up working out about as well for him as it did last time.
Korean Zombie via R4 TKO
Patrick is a consultant turned journalist who loves the fight game and everything to do with it. Focusing on the politics, business, and general state of MMA are his mainstays, though he'll dabble in analysis and best bets when he can. He also enjoys football, basketball, baseball, and great jokes in general so feel free to reach out and berate him on social media whenever you disagree with him.