UFC Fight Night 203: Miranda Maverick vs. Sabina Mazo predictions, betting odds, preview

Miranda “Fear The” Maverick has had an inconsistent but impressive UFC career. Since joining the promotion, Maverick is 2-2 with 1 stoppage victory and 2 decisions losses, one of which was a controversial split decision. Sabina “Colombian Queen” Mazo, the same age as Maverick, 24, is 3-3 in the UFC. She has one stoppage victory and one stoppage loss.

Maverick and Mazo will face each other at UFC Fight Night 203 this Saturday night.

Betting Odds

Despite their similar records, Maverick is a sizable 3:1 favorite over Mazo.

• Maverick: -315
• Mazo: +255

Breakdown

Maverick, despite her salty UFC record, is a talented and skilled fighter. She has a high-level wrestling pedigree; but, in MMA that wrestling has been one-sided. When she initiates the shots, we’ve seen her dominate on the mat. But, when others force Maverick to wrestle defensively, she has struggled. Once on the mat, if she’s on top, Maverick’s submission game is slick and quick. She primarily looks to transition to the back and find the neck, from here, Maverick will crank until her opponent taps or goes to sleep. On the feet, “Fear The” is a quick striker with solid volume. Her hands are often thrown in combination while moving forward, this also helps set up her takedowns. At range, though, Maverick can throw undisciplined kicks that leave her open to be taken down. Despite needing to improve her defensive wrestling and range striking, Maverick has real talent and an ability to finish fights.

Mazo has a reputation of being a tactical and technical striker who uses her length well to keep the fight at her range. From what I’ve seen, only part of that is true. Mazo is a technical striker with a solid jab; however, because her peppering strikes don’t have much stopping power and her footwork is slow, her opponents have been able to crash distance and force her to uncomfortably and unsuccessfully fight in the pocket. When in tight, Mazo will quickly retreat to the cage so she can attempt to keep the fight standing. She has a 66% takedown defense rate, but, once the fight hits the mat, Mazo struggles to defend herself or get the fight back up. At range, in a striking match, Mazo can use her volume and cardio to point-fight her way to wins. But, until she improves her footwork and takedown defense, she’ll continue to struggle against pocket strikers and wrestlers.

Prediction

This is one of my favorite bets because just looking at their records, Maverick and Mazo are similar. But, watching what they’ve done in the octagon, it’s clear there is a significant skill gap. Maverick is a stylistic nightmare for Mazo. Maverick will crash distance, land the heavier shots, and has the wrestling to get the fight down quickly. I like Maverick to get this win inside the distance, by submission specifically but a ground and pound finish is possible too.

Prediction: Maverick by submission