TLDR
- Chris Weidman says McGregor’s only chance is to knock out Holloway in the first or second round
- McGregor has been out since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in July 2021
- Holloway enters as a -400 betting favorite for the July 11, 2026 fight
- The welterweight bout marks a rematch 13 years after McGregor’s 2013 decision win
- Weidman believes McGregor’s confidence makes him capable of overcoming the long layoff
Sources: BJPenn.com | Sportskeeda | EssentiallySports
Former UFC Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman says Conor McGregor has one narrow window to defeat Max Holloway at UFC 329. McGregor must land an early knockout to pull off the upset.
“The only chance Conor really has is to knock out Max, probably in the first or second round,” Weidman said during an appearance on “Deep Waters” on Paramount+. “He’s also going against one of the biggest volume punchers we’ve ever seen, so he’s not coming back in against a guy who kind of has an easy pace to deal with.”
McGregor enters the July 11, 2026 fight as a major underdog. Holloway is listed as high as a -400 betting favorite on some sportsbooks.
The Irish fighter has been out of the Octagon since July 2021 when he suffered a broken leg in his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier. He was scheduled to return in 2024 against Michael Chandler, but a toe injury delayed those plans.
MAC ENERGY IS HERE! 🧊🩵 pic.twitter.com/5geedagUwD
— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) May 9, 2026
Weidman Believes McGregor Can Overcome Adversity
Despite the long layoff and serious injury, Weidman thinks McGregor has the mental strength to succeed. He pointed to McGregor’s unique ability to handle difficult circumstances.
“I would say if anybody could do it, come back from a crazy layoff, come back from a traumatic leg break, all the ups and downs outside the UFC with, like, getting in trouble, lawsuits and stuff, it’s him,” Weidman said. “I think that’s why people love him. He’s got such a confidence about himself.”
The UFC 329 main event will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas during International Fight Week. The fight is scheduled for welterweight at 170 pounds.
This marks a rematch 13 years in the making. McGregor defeated Holloway by unanimous decision in 2013 when both fighters were early in their UFC careers. McGregor was 25 years old at the time, while Holloway was just 21.
Holloway Coming Off Loss to Oliveira
Holloway is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 in March. That fight was for the BMF title.
The Hawaiian fighter currently holds a record of 27-9 and has gone 4-2 in his last six fights. His lightweight record under the UFC banner stands at 2-2.
After his 2013 loss to McGregor, Holloway went on a 13-fight winning streak. During that run, he captured the UFC featherweight championship and defended it four times.
McGregor enters with a professional record of 22-6. He remains one of the biggest stars in UFC history as a former two-division champion in both featherweight and lightweight.
The fight will mark exactly five years to the date since McGregor broke his leg at the same venue. Without a weight cut to 155 pounds, some believe McGregor’s cardio could hold up better in the later rounds if needed.
The welterweight stipulation may favor McGregor, who holds a 2-1 record at 170 pounds compared to 1-3 at lightweight. For Holloway, the weight increase presents new challenges after struggling with size against Oliveira in his last outing.
