UFC Fight Night 196 Predictions: Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn betting odds, breakdown

Grant “KGD” Dawson is a 27-year-old fighter with a near perfect record. Professionally, he is 17-1 with 4 knockouts, 11 submissions, and 2 decision victories. His sole loss was a knockout in 2016. Ricky “The Gladiator” Glenn lines up across Dawson on Saturday. Professionally, the 32-year-old is 22-6 with 12 knockouts, 4 submissions, and 6 decision victories. He’s lost by submission twice and decision four times. Both fighters are coming off a win their last time out.

Dawson vs. Glenn Betting Odds

Dawson is the largest favorite on the card, making Glenn the biggest underdog as well.

• Dawson: -355
• Glenn: +280

Dawson vs. Glenn Breakdown

Dawson has fought, in the UFC, at both feather and lightweight. At featherweight, he is often the bigger man but sacrifices cardio and strength as he has to cut more to make weight. At lightweight, Dawson’s cut is much less taxing; but, he is not inherently the larger man. This is important because Dawson is primarily a wrestler who hunts submission wins; and, he is talented at it. When wrestling, being the larger fighter often means it is an easier path to securing and holding the takedown. When similarly sized, Dawson showed he struggled in this department; he landed only 1 of 13 takedowns in his last fight. Once he got his opponent down though, he, once again, got the finish. Dawson is a talented, relentless, and dangerous wrestler. He will keep coming forward and keep working for that takedown because once he secures it, he often gets the finish. His biggest challenge is, being in between two weight classes, sometimes he struggles to get the takedown and can give up rounds to his opponent.

Glenn will do his best to keep the fight standing where he’ll likely have the edge in the striking battles. Glenn is a long striker who is adept at landing a variety of shots from range. Despite his knockouts and power, he doesn’t headhunt, instead, he works his opponent’s whole body, landing strikes from the legs to the head. Once the distance is closed, Glenn is a solid clinch fighter who uses his length well to land knees to the body. Statistically, Glenn pushes a respectable pace, has a positive strike differential, and has the cardio to consistently land later in the fight. Defensively, Glenn has decent takedown defense, stuffing attempts around 66% of the time. Glenn’s best path to victory is to keep Dawson at the edge of his strikes, stuff takedowns, and either land a big shot when Dawson shoots or stick and move.

Dawson vs. Glenn Prediction

Dawson has holes Glenn which could exploit and win this fight. We saw Dawson struggle last fight against a tough, intelligent, and rangey kickboxer. However, I don’t see this fight going the same way. Glenn might be able to keep the fight standing early; but, eventually Dawson should secure a takedown. From there, it’s only a matter of minutes before he finds the finish.

Prediction: Dawson inside the distance