UFC Fight Night 194 Prediction: Chris Gutierrez vs. Felipe Colares odds, analysis 1

UFC Fight Night 194 will be headlined by Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez on October 9, 2021 in Las Vegas. Before the main card kicks off, a preliminary card will take place and feature potential future UFC stars, including a fight between Chris Gutierrez and Felipe Colares.

America’s own Chris Gutierrez made a name for himself in promotions like World Series of Fighting before entering the UFC in 2018. The light-footed striker promises action as he has finished 7 of his 16 wins via knockout, twice by way of leg kicks. Riding the momentum of a 5 fight undefeated streak, including one draw, Gutierrez looks to pick up a big victory and catapult his career in the coming year with a win on Saturday.

Fighting out of Brazil, the ex-Jungle Fight champion, Felip Colares has established himself as a blood and guts fighter, willing to navigate the chaos of fighting and come out on the winning end of deep waters. Since entering the UFC in 2019, Colares has gone an even 2-2 in four hard-fought and tough decisions. A win over Gutierrez this Saturday would make for his biggest victory in the promotion yet and quickly push forth his career from where it is today, easy to say he has a lot to gain in this match-up.

Gutierrez vs. Colares Betting Odds

Gutierrez will come into the fight as a -255 favorite. This means that a risk of $255 on him would return a profit of $100 if successful.

  • Gutierrez: -255
  • Colares: +200

Gutierrez vs. Colares Breakdown

Chris Gutierrez is the purely technical better fighter. Beginning the fight, when both men are fresh expect Gutierrez to be at his most advantaged in this match-up. He is extremely light on his feet and likes to float in and out of range with a variety of kicks and punches. His ability to find openings for his low leg kick within his combinations sets him apart from any other fighters.

He throws these leg kicks from either stance, and he switches stances often. While he breaks down his opponent’s legs, the lightness of his movements is accentuated further and his ability to open up and land creatively is heightened. Often he will string together a good fundamental combo and then look for something unexpected such as a jumping head kick or hook kick to begin his next exchange.

He is well-rounded, and although he is further on the striker end of the MMA spectrum he does not shy away from mixing in takedowns and can hold his own off his back.

He is very confident and comfortable in his movement, however, because of this he sometimes lets himself get too relaxed and patient. Often you will hear his corner calling for more volume, and while he does look smooth as he fights he can give up points for aggression and octagon control to his opponents. Another drawback to his style, is because stays relatively upright and floats back a great distance out of range, he sometimes exits range with his chin a bit high.

Corales on the other hand, is less pretty in his style and more gritty. He likes to establish his powerful right body kick early but must be careful that he doesn’t lead with it too obviously or could be countered.

Corales thrives deeper in the fight when he can force a battle of attrition between him and his opponent. Watch for him to try to put Gutierrez against the fence and wear on him to exhaust his movement. This helps Corales because by comparison, his striking style is far more flat-footed, but because he sits down on his punches he has very good pure power, especially with his right leg.

There usually comes a point in Corales’ fights where he is able to push himself that extra step in order to land the last strike when they exchange. He is also often able to push through the last moment of a grueling wrestling scenario as his opponent’s strength wavers for a moment and Corales is one of the best at taking advantage of these kinds of moments.

His greatest attribute is his ability to scramble for position, when he is taken down he will elevate excellently and hip escape without any hesitation, at the very least he forces scrambles and does not accept position, causing enough moments of transition for him to explode and take top position, the back or get dominant position against the cage.

Gutierrez vs. Colares Prediction

I expect Gutierrez to come out orthodox to frustrate Corales’ power right style. He will have to be conscious of not over-exerting himself because Corales will be investing in the later rounds, and Gutierrez has a massive advantage in pure technical ability early. He should look to pick apart Corales’ legs as he has a habit of being heavy while pushing in, and by doing so he can open up sniping shots to the head.

For Corales, he needs to negate Gutierrez’s movement by feinting, backing him into the cage, and making it as uncomfortable as possible for him. If he can do so he can take advantage of Gutierrez’s lack of volume and turn the tide the later the fight goes.

Personally, I think the former of these two scenarios is more likely. While Corales has shown an ability to withstand punishment and rally back against withering opponents, endurance isn’t actually a pressing issue in Gutierrez’s game. His ability to efficiently float in and out of range should allow him to build a good head start over Corales and over three rounds I see Gutierrez capturing at least the first two rounds before either finishing Corales or coasting at a slower pace to a decision victory.

Prediction: Chris Gutierrez via KO or decision

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