Mike Mallot vs. Neil Magny prediction | UFC 297

UFC and American army veteran Neil Magny is once again tasked with testing upcoming talent. This time, he stands in the way of rising Canadian “Proper” Mike Malott at UFC 297.

Magny is coming off of a pattern of back-and-forth wins and losses, defeating Phil Rowe, Daniel Rodriguez, and Max Griffen while losing to Ian Garry, Gilbert Burns, and Shavkat Rackhmonov in his last six fights. Regardless, however, Magny has consistently proved that he is the standard if one wants to continue rising into the top 10.

Mike Mallot last fought this past summer when he defeated Adam Fugitt in his Canada homecoming in the UFC. He will likely get an even bigger pop this Saturday as he fights in his home province of Ontario, attempting to bring his UFC record to a perfect 4-0 with a 100% finish rate.

Betting Odds

Neil Magny comes in as the underdog as he looks to set Malott back.

• Mike Malott: -350 (MyBookie)
• Neil Magny: +250 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

As mentioned earlier, Mike Malott has a 100% finishing rate. This speaks to the quickness with which he gets started, all but one of his victories have come in the first round. Malott is known to switch stance, often starting as southpaw and reverting to his natural orthodox stance later on.

However, his consistent moves involve floating to his opponent’s lead side with either his circling jab or step-out cross to set up the big kick to his opponent’s body or head.

Although he goes to this often, it’s dangerous for his opponents to play to hard into it, as once he sees them reacting to the footwork move to that side, he breaks the system and cuts the opposite angle, from southpaw he likes to use the lead leg sidekick to the inside of the leg or knee, and from conventional he will step through right hook, towards his right.

Malott will likely look to get a dominant first round in particular, however he does need to mind his gas tank. He is the faster and more explosive starter, whereas Magny is the slower starter but often wins on his long game. It’s not unusual to see Magny being tagged and wrestled against the fence just for the roles to be reversed later.

Magny is especially tall and long for the division. He keeps a high guard and twitch feints as he tries to work his way forward. He does tend to lean very heavily on the lead leg, leaving himself susceptible to low calf kicks. he also tends to throw his punches over his shoulder, offering some telegraph, but once he gets his jab going, the combination of of his reach and ability to shoulder block counters is very effective.

Knowing he may lose early exchanges, it’s more important that Magny keeps a composed defence and makes Malott work to test his conditioning by round three, Magny will also likely only be looking to strike long enough to find his way into the clinch.

Malott has the advantage on the feet on both the physical and technical levels, barring the potential difference in conditioning we are yet to actually see. In terms of wrestling however, Magny is the more experienced fighter. Malott has shown difficulty with getting to his opponent’s hips in the past but does a good job at completing throws from the clinch. He favours the over under position and the Iranian step around to outside trip.

Magny, on the other hand, wants to get tied up on the fence, find an opportunity to dig both under-hooks and swivel onto the back where he can drag his opponents down with the cage. This is another way he wears down faster and more explosive fighters, maintaining the waistlock and letting them try to work their way up as he rides position.

Malott has excellent jiu-jitsu and struggles on occasion to pass the guard but has wicked submissions from their back and front chokes. If Magny does drop levels on the fence, he will have to be very careful of the guillotine attempts coming his way. That being said, I do expect Malott to avoid the wrestling exchanges and look to kickboxing with Magny, which is where he has the clearest path to victory.

Prediction

Magny is going to have to weather an early and very dangerous storm if he wants to come out on top. He has a history of setting fighters back by dragging them into grueling fights and making them outwork their conditioning.

However, although Malott is known as a fast starter, we haven’t actually been given the opportunity to see the extent of his gas tank in the UFC or any recent fights.

I expect Malott’s superior footwork and kicks to allow him to control the tempo and range of the fight, which, if he maintains correctly, should allow him to keep a three-round pace. The added power and submission threat if Magny gets desperate for his takedowns lead me to believe we will once again see a Malott win by stoppage.

Pick: Mike Malott to win by finish – bet now at MyBookie