Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick prediction | UFC 297 1

Flyweights Malcolm Gordon and Jimmy Flick are set to lead the first pay-per-view of the year in what’s sure to be a fascinating grappling match at UFC 297.

The two are both coming off of losing streaks, with both men being finished in back-to-back bouts. Before that, however, both were riding solid win streaks, with Flick coming off a submission-of-the-year contender after he caught Cody Durden in a memorable flying triangle in 2020.

Regardless, it could be make or break for both men, with the ever-developing flyweight division losing space for fighters on a three-fight losing streak, regardless of the talent or grappling pedigree that both men have.

Betting Odds

With his recent losses coming from much higher caliber opponents, Malcolm Gordon comes in as a slight favorite.

Fight Breakdown

The common fan consensus surrounding Jimmy Flick since his return to the octagon in 2023 seems to be that he’s well past his prime and that his fighting style is too dangerous to match up against the division’s higher-ranked opponents. He’s extraordinarily active off his back, both for better and for worse, often willing to put himself in extremely precarious positions in order to find a sweep or submission. That’s all well and good when considering the sheer activity and danger that other flyweights pose, but I think it matches up fairly well against Gordon and his fighting style.

Gordon, for lack of a better word, is a true wrestler in the sport, despite his BJJ black belt. His takedown entries and setups are extremely explosive and can come from anywhere in the cage. From on top he puts great pressure on his opponents and could sneakily snatch a submission from his guard if the fight ends up there. This could be dangerous for Flick, but it could also play in his favor fairly well. His grappling defense is so refined that I believe, if Gordon decides to take it to the ground or initiate any grappling, Flick would be able to find a sweep, scramble, or even worse, another submission.

The equalizer in this, though, is Gordon’s ground and pound. Once he gets into position he brutally punishes his opponents with a barrage of strikes that quickly opens them up to getting passed. This doesn’t look good for Flick when taking his past two fights into consideration, where he found himself opening his guard only to get brutally finished via strikes. Because of this, I really wouldn’t be surprised if neither man decides to take it to the ground. They’re both so dangerous from a variety of positions that I’d think they wouldn’t want to touch it with a ten-foot pole, but regardless I still think Flick edges out the grappling advantage.

From a striking standpoint, neither guy is much to write home about. They both have strong fundamentals but lack the necessary power, speed, or diversity of strikes to adequately be considered dangerous on the feet. Gordon’s striking is too contingent on setting up the takedown while Flick’s is much more defensive and reliant on clinch-work to set up trips, ankle/leg picks, or guard pulls. I’d say Gordon takes the striking advantage just through sheer athleticism, but realistically it’s anyone’s match on the feet.

Prediction and Betting Guide

On paper, I’d say Gordon has the right attributes to win. He’s stronger, faster, and likely has better conditioning than Flick, all of which are great advantages to carry into a fight.

With that being said, though, I think the fight will naturally play in Flick’s favor. Gordon is far too reliant on the takedown and once he gets to the ground he’s not active enough to put together a finish.

As the fight drags on, I can see Flick pull off a sweep or reversal that shifts the tide of the fight. We’ve seen in his fights with Mokaev and Albazi that Gordon’s vulnerable to submissions against high-caliber grapplers, a title that Flick would also be very deserving of, and often loses steam once a round or two gets stolen from him.

I wouldn’t be heavy on a win via submission, but also wouldn’t be surprised to see Flick pull it off, but at +140 I think he would be a fairly profitable moneyline bet.

Pick: Flick to Win (+140) or Flick via Submission – bet now at MyBookie

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *