Gilbert Urbina vs Charles Radtke prediction | UFC Fight Night 235

Charles Radtke returns this weekend after his controversial debut at UFC 293 in September. The Chicago-born welterweight made headlines last year after being the first of two fighters at the event to use a homophobic slur during their post-fight press conference – with Portuguese flyweight Manel Kape being the second to follow suit. The incident sparked widespread condemnation from fans, fellow fighters, and UFC officials, prompting calls for increased sensitivity and accountability within the sport.

Regardless, he’s going on to face TUF Season 29 alumni Gilbert Urbina in what’s sure to be a barnburner fight between two always-game welterweights. Urbina is coming off a monumental knockout win over Orion Cosce and is looking to prove his worth in the UFC welterweight division.

Despite losing in The Ultimate Fighter, Urbina showcased his skills and resilience throughout the competition, earning the respect of fans and UFC officials alike. His victory over Orion Cosce demonstrated his grappling prowess and ability to finish fights in spectacular fashion and, if he could string together a solid win streak, he could go on to do great things in the UFC.

Betting Odds

After putting together a finish in a much more dominant performance, Urbina enters this bout as a solid betting favorite over Radtke.

• Charles Radtke: +170 (BetUS)
• Gilbert Urbina: -190 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

When looking at their measurements, Urbina seems to have a fairly significant advantage. Formerly fighting at middleweight during The Ultimate Fighter, Urbina comes in as one of the lankier welterweights in the UFC, sporting a 75-inch reach at 6’3″. Radtke is much smaller, physically, at 5’9″ with a 72-inch reach. Radtke is going to have to put the pressure on in order to enter the pocket and hopefully push Urbina against the cage if he wants to see a win, which is a very real possibility.

In terms of style, these two are fairly similar, though. Both men are fairly well-rounded in just about every aspect of the game, with both fighters showcasing solid striking and pressuring groundwork in their previous bouts. Radtke did a great job at keeping the striking specialist, Mike “Blood Diamond” Mathetha, at bay, landing 46% of his significant strikes and doing a great job of using his cage wrestling to slow him down. Before that, Radtke was on a tear in the Northeast-based feeder organization, CFFC, stringing together an impressive four-fight win streak, with three of the victories coming by way of finish.

Gilbert Urbina has been on a different career path. Interestingly enough, his only losses in his career have come from currently successful UFC fighters in Bryan Battle, Tresean Gore, and a regional loss to top welterweight contender, Sean Brady, in LFA. Aside from that, however, he’s been nothing short of dominant in all of his bouts, scoring finishes in over 50% of his victories.

His lanky frame allows him to pepper his opponents with short, but effective, combinations that keep them at bay and set them up for devastating kicks to the legs and body. Once he hits the canvas, he’s an extremely dangerous fighter with consistent ground-and-pound and demoralizing pressure. It’s going to be interesting to see how Radtke responds to this, with his last bout being against another lanky striker, albeit with much sharper striking at the cost of a mediocre grappling game.

Prediction

This one could honestly go either way, with the outcome depending on who could take the other down first. I’d say that Urbina has a significant striking advantage given his frame and overall technique, but Radtke seems up to the task of managing it efficiently.

Radtke’s victory is dependent on backing Urbina up against the cage and scoring a takedown to exhaust the Ohio native, which is something easier said than done against a grappler of Urbina’s caliber. Urbina has shown in the past, however, against strong grapplers like Sean Brady and Bryan Battle that he could be vulnerable to explosive takedowns and slick submissions, both tools that Radtke uses regularly.

I’m going light on Radtke via decision or submission, just because I think his pace will help him pull through in the later rounds, but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see an Urbina knockout early in the fight.

• Pick: Radtke moneyline (+170) or Radtke via Submission (+650)
• Lines to Watch: Urbina via KO/TKO/DQ (+200) or Urbina via Decision (+275)