Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober prediction | UFC Fight Night 235

Renato Moicano returns to the octagon this weekend for the first time since November 2022. His opponent will be Drew Dober, coming off of a first-round TKO of Ricky Glenn in October.

Before his hiatus, Moicano dispatched Brad Riddell at UFC 281. Showcasing his new striking skills before submitting Riddell with his signature rear-naked choke. Moicano was then slated to take on Arman Tsarukyan in April but withdrew due to injury but will finally return healthy on Saturday.

Dober, including his defeat of Glenn, has amassed a 4-1 record in his last five, with all four victories coming by way of KO/TKO. This includes wins over Bobby Green, Rafael Alves, and Terrance McKinney.

Betting Odds

Moicano will have the support of the oddsmakers as he makes his UFC return a -185 favorite.

• Renato Moicano: -185 (BetUS)
• Drew Dober: +160 (MyBookie)

Fight Breakdown

Renato Moicano had a short window to show his increased striking prowess in his last fight before the contest ended. What fans did get to see was a solid jab and ability to control the range, touch and give enough space to avoid the counter and land combinations. He also showed a very good knee to the body that set up his boxing early on.

In general, Moicano’s best shot has historically been his left hook. He does not have the fastest footwork but does have very good hand speed, often allowing his opponents to move in and get cut up inside the pocket rather than chasing them. He also likes to stick and draw them in because of the counter takedowns, Moicano is especially good at slipping straight shots and using this to get in on single leg takedowns.

Drew Dober will likely be the one to press forward. He has to be extremely careful about the way he commits to entering the pocket, as he has been known to eat a shot to land a shot, especially against rangier fighters. He does have the power advantage and the advantage in durability as Moicano has had his chin tested quite a few times now.

Dober’s best combinations are his right hook to left straight as a southpaw, and the reverse, left straight to right hook. He does a good job of switching the hook side as he cuts off the cage, forcing his opponents into a corner.

However, again, he has to be careful winging those punches too high, as Moicano will look to slip and shoot. If Moicano cannot finish the single leg out in the open, he will look to drive the shot onto the fence, where he can work from a clinch to take the back or entangle and drag his opponent down.

He is most known for working way to the back and sinking in rear naked chokes, however Moicano is very educated as a general grappler and won’t rush anything that isn’t there. Submission losses have plagued Dober in his UFC run with four of his last six losses coming by sub.

Prediction

I do believe that Moicano gets the job done. It’s clear that for Dober the best course of action is to maintain the fight on the feet, he has generally a better chin and definitely more KO power.

On the flip side, Moicano’s easiest route to victory is by submission. The difference being I do think that on a technical level, Moicano can hold his own a bit better in the stand-up than Dober on the mat, as long as Moicano sticks to the smart gameplan and doesn’t get over-excited in the striking exchanges, I think he stays competitive enough to eventually find his way to the canvas and secure a submission.

Pick: Renato Moicano to win by submission (+175 at BetUS)