Drew Dober vs. Rick Glenn prediction | UFC Fight Night 229
Drew Dober and Rick Glenn will go head-to-head in a lightweight fight at UFC Fight Night 229 this weekend.
Drew Dober, 34, suffered only his second knockout loss of his career and his first in the UFC in his last fight. Overall, in the UFC, Dober is 12-8 with nine finish wins and five finish losses.
Rick “The Gladiator” Glenn, also 34, is 4-4-1 in the UFC with one knockout win and one loss. That knockout defeat also came in his most recent fight.
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Betting Odds
Dober is a prohibitive favorite over Glenn.
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Fight Breakdown
Dober is one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC, especially among unranked lightweights. He has immense power, a fabled chin, and a tendency to get into fan-friendly brawls. Dober’s style, while exciting, has produced mixed results. His defense is non-existent, instead relying on his durability to withstand punishment as he looks to land his own power shots for the finish.
His offense has huge power but his striking is wild and fairly basic. He rarely mixes in any strikes other wide and looping hooks. These hooks, often thrown with his back against the cage, are swung from his hips which help him generate extra power. But, fighters with straight punches can often land first. Additionally, Dober has an accredited wrestling background and is hyper-athletic, but he rarely laces up his wrestling shoes on the canvas. Dober’s style is basic and risky: survive and thrive; but, because of his durability and power, it has worked for him more often than not.
Glenn, like Dober, is also hyper-aggressive. He is a tall and long striker who also tends to throw wide hooks in the pocket, relying on his own durability in these fan-friendly brawls. Glenn likes to press forward early with an awkward and off-beat striking attack that features a wide range of punches and kicks thrown at odd times and from odd angles.
Like Dober, Glenn’s durability benefits him as he’s pressing forward because his actual defense is minimally existent: he gets hit often. Until recently, Glenn has been able to walk through counter shots and get his opponents against the cage where he can continue to accumulate damage, engage the clinch, or land a takedown. His goal is to make the fight ugly and dirty. However, Glenn was knocked out in his last fight against a subpar striker. It may have been the perfect shot; or, more concerningly, it may have been the result of absorbing years of damage.
Prediction
I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking a dog shot on Glenn here. The implied odds give Dober an 82% chance of winning; and, considering both men are coming off of knockout losses, a -455 tag is a steep price to pay.
However, I do foresee Dober winning this fight and doing so in a violent way. Styles make fights and Glenn’s tall frame, wide hooks, and aggression should play perfectly into Dobers power-heavy counter game. I expect this fight to take place with Dober against the cage and both men teeing off until someone falls.
Until his recent loss, Dober had one of the best chins in the business; and, even though a great chin can fall off quickly, I trust his durability more than Glenn’s who has been rocked several times before getting finished by a subpar striker his last time out. All that, plus Dober’s edge in power, speed, and natural athleticism, has me picking him to win via knockout.
Best Bet: Dober to win by knockout (-185)
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Why you dont pick more fights bro
I appreciate it! I try to limit my breakdowns to fights I actually plan to bet. While I have an opinion on most (if not all) fights, I only bet a few per card to try and maximize profit while minimizing overexposure.