If you are a fan of mixed martial arts (MMA), you might be interested in learning how to bet on the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the most recognized MMA promotion in the world. With the upcoming UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley event this Saturday night, it’s the perfect time to start.
Betting on UFC fights, such as the ones at UFC 292, can be a fun and profitable way to enjoy the sport, but it also requires some knowledge and strategy.
In this article, we will guide you through the process of betting on UFC online, from understanding different types of bets and odds to finding reliable bookmakers and resources. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced bettor, this article will help you improve your UFC betting skills and maximize your chances of winning, including your UFC 292 wagers.
Best UFC Betting Sites
If you want to bet on UFC fights online, including the exciting matchups at UFC 292, you should know how to understand UFC odds, types of bets, and strategies. You should also choose a reliable and reputable sportsbook that offers good odds, promotions, and customer service. Here are two of the best places to bet on UFC fights:
BetUS is the best UFC betting site for beginners because it has a user-friendly interface, helpful tutorials, and generous bonuses. You can get up to $5000 in free bets when you sign up with BetUS. It also covers all the major UFC events like UFC 292 and offers various types of bets such as moneyline, total rounds, method of victory, etc.
MyBookie is great for UFC betting because it allows you to bet on almost all fights taking place, including the main event, undercard, and prelims of UFC 292. It also offers excellent UFC betting odds and a smooth mobile app. You can get up to $1000 in free bets when you join MyBookie here.
Understanding UFC odds
UFC odds, like the ones you’ll see for the UFC 292 event, are usually displayed in American format, which means they can be either positive or negative.
- Positive odds show how much you would win if you bet $100 on that outcome.
- Negative odds show how much you would need to bet to win $100 on that outcome.
For example, if a fighter has +200 odds, it means you would win $200 if you bet $100 on them.
If a fighter has -200 odds, it means you would need to bet $200 to win $100 on them.
Now that you understand the potential return of each bet, it’s time to understand the most important aspect of betting odds — implied probability.
Importance of implied probability
Implied probability is a way of converting betting odds into a percentage that shows how likely an outcome is to happen. This concept applies to all fights, including those at UFC 292.
UFC odds represent the implied probability of each outcome, as determined by the bookmaker. The implied probability is calculated differently depending on whether the odds are negative or positive.
- Positive odds: 100 / (Odds +100) * 100 = Implied Probability
- Negative odds: Odds / (Odds +100) * 100 = Implied Probability
For example, if a fighter has +200 odds, their implied probability is 100 / (200+100) = 0.33 or 33%. This means that the bookmaker thinks that this fighter has a 33% chance of winning.
If a fighter has -200 odds, their implied probability is 200 / (200+100) = 0.66 or 67%.
The sum of the implied probabilities of both fighters should be close to 100%, but it may be slightly higher due to the bookmaker’s margin.
Implied probability can help you compare your own estimation of how likely an outcome is with the bookmaker’s estimation. If you think an outcome is more likely than the implied probability suggests, then you have found a good value bet.
If you think an outcome is less likely than the implied probability suggests, then you have found a bad value bet.
For example, let’s say Fighter A has +150 odds and Fighter B has -150 odds in a UFC fight. Fighter A’s implied probability is 40% and Fighter B’s implied probability is 60%.
If you believe Fighter A actually has a 50% chance of winning and Fighter B actually has a 50% chance of winning, then you have found value in betting on Fighter A because their odds will provide a higher return than their true probability.
Types of UFC bets
If you want to bet on UFC fights, such as the eagerly anticipated bouts at UFC 292, you should know the different types of bets that are available. Each type of bet has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on your betting strategy and preferences.
Here are some of the most common types of UFC bets:
Moneyline: A moneyline is a simple bet where you have to pick which fighter you think will win. The odds for each fighter reflect their perceived chances of winning. For example, if Fighter A has odds of -200 and Fighter B has odds of +150, it means that Fighter A is the favorite and you have to bet $200 to win $100, while Fighter B is the underdog and you can win $150 by betting $100.
Total Rounds: You can bet on how many rounds a fight will last with the total rounds bet. The bookmaker will set a number of rounds (usually 2.5 or 3.5) and you have to decide whether the fight will go over or under that number. For example, if the number of rounds is set at 2.5 and the odds are -110 on the under and +175 on the over, you will have to wager $110 to win $100 if the fight ends less than 2.5 rounds, or you will need $100 to win $175 if the fight lasts more than 2.5 rounds.
Method of Victory: This type of bet allows you to predict how a fighter will win the fight. It can be either by knockout (TKO/KO), submission, or decision. The odds for each method vary depending on the fighters’ styles and skills.
Winning Round: This type of bet requires you to pick which round a fighter will win in. The odds for each round depend on how likely it is for a fight to end in that round.
Go the Distance: This type of bet is similar to the total rounds bet, but instead of choosing over or under a specific number of rounds, you simply choose whether the fight will go to a decision or not. The odds for this bet depend on how likely it is for both fighters to last until the final bell.
Fight Props: These are bets that involve specific aspects or events within a fight. For example, you can bet on whether there will be a knockdown in a fight, the number of takedowns in a fight, whether there will be an eye poke in a fight, etc.
How to bet on UFC fights
Betting on UFC fights, including the much-hyped fights at UFC 292, can be a fun and profitable way to enjoy the sport of mixed martial arts. However, it also requires some skill and knowledge to make smart and informed decisions.
Here are some general strategies and advice for betting on UFC fights:
Research fighters’ styles and records. Before placing a bet on a fight, you should do some homework on the fighters involved.
Learn about their strengths and weaknesses, their fighting styles, their recent performances, their injuries, and health status, their training camps and coaches, etc. This will help you assess how they match up against each other and what factors could influence the outcome of the fight.
Analyze matchups and odds. Once you have a good understanding of the fighters’ backgrounds and abilities, you should compare them with the odds offered by different sportsbooks.
Look for value bets where you think the odds are not reflecting the true probability of a fighter winning or losing. For example, if you think a fighter has a 60% chance of winning but the odds are +150 (implying a 40% chance), then you have an edge over the bookmaker.
You should also consider different types of bets such as moneyline (straight-up winner), over/under (total number of rounds), prop bets (specific outcomes such as method of victory or round of finish), etc.
Manage bankroll and expectations. Betting on UFC fights can be exciting but also risky.
You should never bet more than you can afford to lose and always have a budget for your betting activities. You should also have realistic expectations about your results and not chase losses or get overconfident after wins.
Remember that even the best bettors have losing streaks and that MMA is an unpredictable sport where anything can happen in the cage. You should treat betting as a form of entertainment and not a source of income.
Tips for betting on UFC fights
- According to a study by MMA Parlay, about half of the time, a matchup with a big favorite will result in a finish before the lined fight total. This means that betting on the under could be profitable in some cases, especially when the odds are around +200 or higher.
- Female UFC fights tend to go over more often than male UFC fights. According to MMA Parlay, female UFC fights have gone over 51.5% of the time since 2017, compared to 45.9% for male UFC fights. This means that betting on the over could be valuable in some cases, especially when the line is tight.
- Different divisions have different trends and patterns for betting on UFC fights. According to Odds.com, some divisions have higher rates of overs, unders, favorites or underdogs winning than others. For example, the men’s featherweight division has seen 71% of its fights go over since January 2020, while the men’s flyweight division has seen 77% of its favorites win since January 2020. This means that bettors should pay attention to these trends and adjust their bets accordingly.
Important UFC betting stats to know
- According to Action Network, analytical data can show that underdogs have been profitable in UFC betting since 2016, with a 37.9% win rate and a +8.5% ROI. They also report that decisions were more frequent than finishes in 2021, with a record high of 55.41% of fights going to the judges.
- Sports Betting Dime suggests that rematches can be tricky to predict, as some fighters may improve or decline over time. They give the example of Conor McGregor, who lost his first fight against Nate Diaz and then later defeated Diaz by decision. Another example is how Stipe Miocic was defeated by Daniel Cormier in 2018 but later beat him twice in a row to emerge as the trilogy victor.
- Odds Shark also provides some statistics on rematches, showing that the winner of the first fight has won 65% of the time in UFC history. They also note that Daniel Cormier was an underdog in his rematch with Anthony Johnson despite winning their first fight, and he won again by submission.
- Odds.com analyzes UFC betting trends by division, showing how different weight classes have different outcomes and profitability. For example, they report that the light heavyweight division has been the toughest one to call, with underdogs turning a marginal profit and overs being almost a coin-flip.
In this article, you have learned how to bet on UFC fights online, including the important UFC 292 event, from understanding different types of bets and odds to finding reliable bookmakers and resources.
You have also learned some general strategies and advice for betting on UFC fights, such as researching fighters’ styles and records, analyzing matchups and odds, managing bankroll and expectations, and using analytical data and trends.
Betting on UFC fights, including the high-stakes matches at UFC 292, can be a fun and profitable way to enjoy the sport of mixed martial arts, but it also requires some skill and knowledge to make smart and informed decisions.
If you want to test your skills at betting on UFC fights, especially at the upcoming UFC 292 event, you can start by checking out some of the best UFC betting sites that we recommend. Remember to always bet responsibly and have fun!