In 2018, a young and brash Alexander Hernandez had just beaten Beniel Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier back to back. Many fans believed he was a soon-to-be UFC contender, but important fights with UFC veterans and fellow rising stars in the subsequent years, humbled the phenom.
Going into his fight this weekend at UFC Fight Night 229, Alexander Hernandez is a much more seasoned and experienced fighter, having competed 11 times in the UFC octagon and most recently beaten UFC legend Jim Miller.
His next opponent, the also experienced Bill Algeo is coming off of a submission victory over T.J. Brown in April. Algeo has fought some major names in the featherweight division, including former title challenger and longtime contender Ricardo Lamas and Andre Fili. He has constantly improved between fights and looks to bring the best version of himself against Hernandez.
Betting Odds
Bill Algeo will come into the bout as the slight favorite, directly off of his April victory.
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Fight Breakdown
Bill Algeo’s original combat sport base is in wrestling. He carries this into all of his fights with his excellent takedowns off of the cage as well as top control however most recently he has become more known for his unique striking ability. Algeo favors a sideways, bouncy karate-esk stance with a snappy lead leg side kick, front kick and blitzing punches. However, as he developed his karate stylings on top of an already versed MMA game, he does not maintain the illusiveness of others who use it. It is not uncommon to see Algeo dip and weave in the pocket and counter with nice hooks, as well as throw a solid switch kick from the outside.
His use of a low guard does mean when he is hit he can be caught cleanly with his head in the air but also tends to roll well with punches. That being said, it is difficult to find one’s way in on Algeo as a stabbing front kick down the centre and lead side kick help him maintain range so that he can enter boxing range on his own terms. He typically throws strikes freely knowing he has an extensive wrestling game, and black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. This is also why he is confident stack passing from top position if he does elect to grapple, leaning on his good submission defence to maintain position and ground and pound from a high postured position.
Alexander Hernandez utilizes a much more crouched and tight stance. He likewise maintains a wide stance, but is more reminiscent of a sprinter, with his knee pointed out forward allowing him to lunge in with his 1-2 and rear leg knees or kicks. He also keeps a much tighter guard. It will be difficult for Hernandez to get inside Algeo’s range, as the shorter fighter, but he needs to do what he does best. Hernandez is one of the best at using his kicks to set up his hands, rather than the usual vice versa. Hernandez will establish his counter step in knee when his opponents moves forward and just as easily use his step in knee on the lead to switch stance and bridge the range to attack from southpaw.
Hernandez usually begins his fights with a relatively basic approach, his jab, cross and kicks making up most of his strike variety. As he finds success he starts to open up with a wider range of tools, making him more effective the longer the fight goes. He needs to establish his low kicks early to attack the bladed stance of Alego and get him biting whenever Hernandez looks to kick, which will open up the stance switch entries into the pocket. From there he has better chance of negating the range and karate style of Alego. Inside Hernandez has the more effective Muay Thai, and although Algeo may on paper be the better grappler, Hernandez is as good a scrambler as any. He will be difficult to hold down unless he is already hurt, however, chasing a grappling match is not in his best interest unless he finds a way to hold position with the cage and land effective ground and pound outside of straight jiu jitsu exchanges.
Prediction
Bill Algeo is definitely dangerous everywhere. If he can keep the fight at range and stick Hernandez with his kicks while constantly avoiding the pocket he could easily out work him. However, I do think that Hernandez has the ability to set up Algeo by going to the lead leg and using his switch hit tactics to get on the inside. Although Algeo has tremendous submission and wrestling ability I do think that the explosiveness and physicality of Hernandez will weight heavy in clinch positions along the cage as well as in his ability to explode back up if he is taken down. If Hernandez is careless in his own control positions and provides opportunities for Alegeo, this could spell trouble, but by sticking to a game plan and not taking unnecessary risks on the ground I do think Hernandez has the edge.
Pick: Alexander Hernandez to win (+100)
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