UFC Vegas 42 Predictions: Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams breakdown, betting odds
Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams is going to be a banger. Both men are young, exciting, and hard-hitting prospects. Baeza is 29-years-old with a 10-1 record. Seven of his ten wins have come by knockout. Williams, on the other side, is 27 with a 12-2 record. Six of his wins have come by knockout. Neither man has been finished as a professional.
Baeza vs. Williams betting odds
Baeza, narrowly, is the favorite in his matchup against Williams
- Baeza: -145
- Williams: +115
Baeza vs. Williams Breakdown
Baeza is a tall, strong, and athletic welterweight who is adept at using his size and power well in the cage. He has powerful leg kicks mixed with solid boxing. Baeza has power in all facets but makes his hay softening up his opponent’s legs and body with his own leg kicks, then landing a big combination often punctuated with a right hand. Baeza moves well laterally and has reliable cardio to continue his above-average output, 5.3 significant strikes per minute, into the 3rd round. Baeza, though, is hittable, absorbing 5.1 significant strikes per minute, but has shown a stone jaw that can take real shots. Baeza’s typical game plan is to float laterally on the outside, landing leg kicks from range, then, when his opponent is flat-footed or immobile, planting and landing a heavy combination.
Williams, nicknamed Khaos for a reason, can match Baeza’s explosive power and stone jaw. Williams is an athletic and powerful boxer who prefers to stand in the middle of the octagon and go toe to toe with his foe until someone falls. Since he has such a reliable chin and heavy hands, his opponent tends to be the one to drop first. He tends to plot, with a traditional boxing stance, forward, keep a high shell guard to protect himself, then in the blink of an eye, burst forward swinging big and powerful combinations. Williams tends to swing with looping punches and keep his chin high which leaves him vulnerable to straight shots up the middle. His speed and athleticism have counteracted that gap in his game, though, and he tends to land more when in those exchanges. He lands, on average 5.2, and absorbs 3.6 significant strikes per minute. So, Williams is often the fighter landing not only heavier strikes but more volume as well. This style, dependent on landing first and final in the pocket, has been successful and exciting but is, typically, not sustainable.
Baeza vs. Williams Prediction
I like Baeza, slightly, in this one. Williams always has the cliché “puncher’s chance” because of his power; and, I am higher on his talent than some. But, Baeza’s leg kicks should be a big factor against Williams who keeps a lot of his weight on his led leg. That, paired with Baeza’s straight right hand have me picking him here. I see Baeza ripping into William’s lead leg and then landing a right hand on his chin to knockout Williams for the first time in his career.
Prediction: Baeza by KO/TKO