Don’Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian prediction, breakdown, betting odds

Don’Tale Mayes earned a contract in 2019 after a TKO victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. His UFC debut came against the now interim heavyweight champion, Gane; Mayes lost by heel hook in round three. He returned to lose again by submission; but, in his last fight, tasted his first UFC victory with a decision win.

Josh Parisian, 32, is three years older than Mayes but has one fewer fight in the UFC after also earning a contract from Dana White’s Contender Series. Both of his fights have gone to decision.

Mayes vs. Parisian betting odds

Mayes is a 2:1 favorite over Parisian.

• Mayes: -200
• Parisian: +160

Mayes vs. Parisian fight breakdown

Mayes is a large six-foot-six athletic heavyweight with solid power. He moves well for his size, is a decent striker, and a willing kicker. He typically stalks forward with a little bounce in his step, throwing in combination with his punches or single kicks targeting his opponent’s calf. His combination of size and varied attacks should make him a dangerous fighter; but, Mayes has struggled to win consistently. He often gasses out after round one even though he can be overly patient when striking, moving forward but not letting anything go. When he does let his hands go, despite having four of his eight wins coming by knockout, Mayes does not have the one-shot power. Lastly, Mayes struggles significantly from his back; once he is taken down, he has shown an inability to get back up or defend the submission. Mayes’ typical path to victory relies on him staying at range where he can strike and move with a lower volume to try and maintain his gas tank.

Parisian, unlike his opponent, prefers a higher volume fight. Averaging over 6.5 significant strikes per minute, Parisian’s typical game plan is to let his opponent move forward as he looks to counter. His volume-heavy style is not routed in speed or power; instead, Parisian will strike slowly but consistently. Parisian, like Mayes, does not pack the same punch as many others in the division. Despite 10 of his 14 wins coming by knockout, at the UFC level, Parisian has struggled to land faster or heavier than his foe. His best attribute might be his ability to just “be there” in a fight. With a reliable chin and determination to stand and trade, Parisian can output his way to decision wins. However, when facing someone with a speed, power, or grappling advantage, Parisian’s tendency to “be there” often means he is right there to be hit.

Mayes vs. Parisian prediction

Without real knockout power, this fight is likely going to be sloppy and test which man can continue his output later in the fight. Parisian will likely have the edge in cardio; but, Mayes should be the one landing more consistently. Mayes’ edge in athleticism and ability to stay at range has me giving him the nod.

Prediction: Mayes by decision