UFC Fight Night 195 Prediction: Danny Roberts vs. Ramazan Emeev odds, analysis

UFC Fight Night 195’s prelims will conclude with a welterweight match-up between England’s own Danny Roberts and Russia’s Ramazan Emeev. A UFC fighter since 2015, Roberts has accumulated a total UFC record of 6-4, against some of the sport’s biggest names including Mike Perry and Michel Periera. Most recently Roberts is coming off a TKO victory over Zelim Imadaev in November 2019.

On the other side of the octagon, Ramazan Emeev will be coming into the bout on the back of two victories over Niklas Stolze and David Zawada. Having fought inside the UFC promotion since 2017, Emeev has lost only once in that time with a UFC record of 5-1.

Roberts vs. Emeev betting odds

The Englishman will come in as the substantial underdog at +195 against his Russian counterpart.

• Roberts: +265
• Emeev: -340

Roberts vs. Emeev Breakdown

The outcome of this match will be very statistically interesting. For the most part, Ramazan Emeev is a fighter who dominates to a decision victory, which is reflected in all of his UFC wins going this way with the exception of one hard-fought split decision. On the other hand, Roberts has never lost via decision in his entire career before, and it seems that to get the victory, a finish may be required.

Roberts is the much more well-rounded fighter, he is a southpaw with good boxing and kicks. In this particular match up look for him to use the rear leg kick, a shot which should be open as they stand in opposite stances. This is an effective tool because Emeev’s striking is much more rudimentary, and he has a glaring habit of standing heavy on the front leg, leaning far to the right, throwing with power every chance he gets.

Typically because he keeps his head so low, his punches come over the shoulder, but this makes sense as for the most part his opponents expect the takedown and therefore drop their hands when he lunges in so low. The difference is that Roberts is more polished and has more weapons, and he will typically strike clean but choose his moments to commit, Emeev utilizes fewer weapons but throws with all he’s got, by leaning right, his counter right hook is unusually powerful.

On the canvas, Roberts can definitely hold his own, but the advantage goes to Emeev. One of the criticisms of Roberts’ grappling style is that while he has excellent timing on his takedowns, he often drops to his knees early counting on his weight to complete them, rather than driving through his opponent. On multiple occasions, this has led to him being reversed, when he is the one initiating the grappling exchange.

This falls right into Emeev’s game, he is very good at taking advantage of sloppy grappling techniques and ending up on top. At the very least he will likely be able to scramble and end up pushing Roberts against the fence.

One of the key elements about Emeev’s game is that he is so confident in his ability to re-take his opponent’s down that he will often give up position to attack and end up back on his feet. For example, if he finds himself hunched over his opponent against the bottom of the cage, he has in the past opened up and landed hooks, allowing his opponent to stand but doing damage in the time between. He will also look for submissions that lose him dominant control, but with 7 submissions to his name, statistically the second most common way to victory for Emeev, Roberts has to be very wary when he sees his opportunities to escape.

Roberts vs. Emeev Prediction

At -340 to +265, the odds are pretty stacked. While I don’t believe that there should be such a vast difference, due to Roberts’ superior striking, Emeev is rightfully the favorite. I think it’s a closer fight than it seems, but I think the most likely outcome will be Emeev securing his first finish in the UFC via submission, likely as Roberts attempts a scramble in order to get up or if Roberts decides to initiate the grappling on his terms.

Prediction: Ramazan Emeev via submission