UFC Fight Night 203: Drew Dober vs. Terrance McKinney predictions, betting odds, preview

Drew Dober, 33, returns to the octagon following a decision loss in June of 2021. In the UFC, Dober is 9-7-1 with six of his wins coming by stoppage. He takes on late replacement fighter, Terrance McKinney. McKinney fought just two weeks ago where he finished yet another fight in the first round. He is 2-0 in the UFC with two stoppage victories coming in the first round.

Dober and McKinney will clash this Saturday night at UFC Fight Night 203.

Betting Odds

This line has been precipitously dropping since the open. Currently, Dober is a slight favorite.

• Dober: -160
• McKinney: +150

Breakdown

Dober is a stout powerhouse of a lightweight. Dober began his career as a take one to land one striker and relied on his durability and power advantages to win fights. However, since joining Team Elevation, Dober’s skills have evolved. He still bulldozes forward, but, now, with tactical flurries. Rather than blinding rushing in, Dober will set up his blitz attacks behind a stiff jab and solid calf kick. His goal is to create an opening for a sledgehammer of a left hand. When he is able to land that anvil of a punch, his opponent rarely recovers. Dober’s wide base, natural strength, and wrestling background have aided him in keeping fights standing against smaller or less technical opponents. However, once he climbed into the rankings, we saw Dober’s takedown defense falter. Nevertheless, his evolving game, undeniable power, durability, and reliable cardio make him a tough fight for anyone looking to crack the top 15.

McKinney, riding the hot streak of all hot streaks, has back-to-back first-round finishes in the UFC. He has fought a total of 2:18 and has been able to showcase a versatile and dangerous game. In his debut, we experienced McKinney’s special power. He has a long frame and switches his stance well to dictate range before letting his hands go. Once he does, he lands with legitimate power. His strikes are often right down the barrel which increases their chances of landing cleanly on the chin of his opponent. Then, in his second fight, we saw McKinney lace up his wrestling shoes and display the skills that got him to the UFC- explosive wrestling and dedicated submission hunting. McKinney comes from an accredited wrestling background and is adept at timing his shots well following his strikes. His opponents can’t keep their hands high to guard their chins and low to stuff the takedowns at the same time; so, as with many wrestle boxers, McKinney has openings to finish the fight. Ultimately, he is a quick-twitch and powerful athlete with an impressively well-rounded and violent skillset.

Prediction

When McKinney stepped in on short notice at a +200, I was ready to jump on the line. This fight, on paper, is much closer. Unfortunately, the odds have significantly narrowed and the McKinney value has decreased. McKinney has the power, wrestling, and pressure game that has caused Dober issues in the past. But Dober has the durability to force McKinney into deeper waters. This fight should be excellent and could go either way. So, given the coin flip nature, I’m slightly siding with McKinney to keep his winning streak alive.

Prediction: McKinney to win