UFC Fight Night 198 Predictions: Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz breakdown, betting odds

Pat Sabatini, Renzo Gracie Philly training partner with co-main event fighter Sean Brady is back in the octagon after his recent heel-hook win in August. Sabatini is 31-years-old, 15-3 as a professional, and is 2-0 in the UFC. He has a 66% finish rate and ten of those finishes have been by submission. Lutz, 27-years-old, is 1-0 in the UFC after earning a contract on DWCS in 2020. He is 12-1 professionally with six knockouts and two submissions.

Sabatini vs. Lutz betting odds

Sabatini is a slight favorite over his younger foe, Lutz.

• Sabatini: -135
• Lutz: +105

Sabatini vs. Lutz breakdown

I wrote an article about Sabatini ahead of his most recent fight where I noted his impressive wrestling and seamless transitions to submissions. After his last win, a heel-hook submission, my evaluation of the Philadelphia fighter has only improved. Sabatini showed an impressive ability to avoid a firefight on the feet, shoot and secure a takedown against a fighter with solid takedown defense, and snatch up a limb immediately. This strategy will continue to serve Sabatini well so long as he isn’t baited into a brawl and can continue to improve his cardio. Sabatini has respectable striking and often lands with some pop; but, he is more often than not the slower and less defensively sound striker. But, Sabatini has shown that he knows his game and how to execute- wrestle, submit, and win. So long as he follows the same path and does not gas himself out, he should continue to be successful.

Lutz, on the other side, is a good striker but struggles defensively on the feet. He, like Sabatini, is a talented wrestler; but, unlike his opponent, has been baited into striking matches. During those prolonged striking exchanges, Lutz mixes in calf kicks well along with boxing combinations that results in a high volume and +1.4 significant striking differential. When Lutz decides to wrestle, he is successful. Lutz shoots, on average, 2.3 takedowns per fight at a 63% clip. He is more of a control wrestler who looks to hold and maintain position rather than hunt for submissions. Ultimately, as a wrestler with reliable hands, Lutz has the tools to be a successful UFC fighter; but, his fighting IQ, getting baited into ill-advised striking matches, creates issues.

Sabatini vs. Lutz prediction

On the feet, Lutz should have the advantage. His boxing is crisper and he can maintain a high volume. However, in wrestling exchanges, Sabatini has the edge. Sabatini is more the technical, fluid, and aggressive wrestler. Further, I see something that could be special with Sabatini and his ability to get the fight to the ground and get finishes. For Lutz, I see a solid fighter but someone who is missing the “special.” I anticipate Sabatini outclassing Lutz on the mat for the win.

Prediction: Sabatini to win