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UFC Fight Night 198 Predictions: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady breakdown, betting odds

UFC Fight Night 198 Predictions: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady breakdown, betting odds

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Another fighter from the Renzo Gracie Philly Gym on this card, Sean Brady is 28-years-old and 14-0 as a professional. In the UFC, Brady is 4-0 with two submissions and two decision wins. Michael Chiesa, a fighter and commentator for the UFC, is 33-years-old, and 18-5 professionally. Eleven of his eighteen wins and four of his losses have come by submission. 

Chiesa vs. Brady betting odds

Brady is a slight favorite over the veteran Chiesa.

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Chiesa vs. Brady breakdown

Talking about this fight, I joked that it is a father vs. son matchup. Both Brady and Chiesa are expert wrestlers, talented submission artists, fight with an eerily similar style, and are even heavily tattooed. Jokes aside, Brady and Chiesa are comparable in many ways; but, the most prominent is each fighter’s wrestling acumen. Brady averages 2.7 takedowns per fight at a 60% clip, holds a 100% takedown defense, and averages 1.2 submission attempts per fight. He is an aggressive powerhouse who has the IQ to choose his spots before he explodes for a single or double leg takedown.

As a welterweight, Brady has the size, athleticism, strength, and speed to take most of his opponents down; furthermore, Brady is one of the more technically sound grapplers which helps him later in fights to still secure takedowns. On the feet, Brady is defensively stout and implements a solid calf kick to weaken the base of his eventual wrestling partner. Typically, Brady will spend a few minutes on the feet to set up a takedown window, shoot, secure it, and look immediately to squeeze the daylight out of his opponent.

Chiesa has a very similar approach. On the feet, Chiesa moves well laterally, avoids throwing or absorbing strikes, primarily uses feints to cause his opponent to overextend, and then shoot a takedown. He averages 3.6 takedowns per fight at a 53% success rate, holds a 68% takedown defense, and averages 1.1 submission attempts. Just like Brady, Chiesa’s submission attempt numbers are lower because once he is in a position to grab a limb or a choke, it’s only a matter of time before Chiesa gets the tap. Possibly a just a one-off, possibly a sign of age catching up to a very talented fighter, or possibly Luque is just that good; but, in his last fight, Chiesa was taken down and submitted quickly. Chiesa will look to be the one to initiate and secure the attempts in this fight.

Brady vs. Chiesa prediction

This fight will likely come down to who can land the first takedown. Both men know this and will likely spend time on the feet setting it up. On the feet, I anticipate Brady landing with more success. When the fight does hit the mat, I anticipate Brady being the one on top. He is just as technical as Chiesa but should have the important edge in strength and athleticism during the impending scrambles. That slight edge should be enough.

Prediction: Brady to win

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