UFC Fight Night 193 Predictions: Joe Solecki vs. Jared Gordon odds, analysis

Solecki is 28 years old, 11-2 as an MMA professional and has seven wins by submission. In the UFC, after earning his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, Solecki is 3-0 with 1 submission and 2 decision wins. The 33-year-old, Gordon will stand opposite Solecki on Saturday night with a 17-4 overall record and a 5-3 UFC record. All 5 wins have been unanimous decisions and all 3 losses have been knockouts.

Solecki vs. Gordon betting odds

Solecki and Gordon are nearly at pick’em odds and the line has moved closer throughout the week.

• Solecki: -130
• Gordon: +100

Solecki vs. Gordon breakdown

Solecki is the epitome of a wrestle-boxer. He is a wrestler by trade but has some real heat in his hands. Solecki also has great cardio and is defensively sound on both on the feet and mat. He averages 2.7 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing an impressive .8. Again though, wrestling is what separates Solecki. He averages 2.4 takedowns per fight; and, once he secures the takedown, the round or fight will likely end with him on top. Solecki will shoot a double or single leg, explode with his hips, and look to land in an advantageous position. He keeps his chest close to his opponent, smothers them on the ground, and hunts the choke. I say choke, not submission, because all 7 of Solecki’s submission wins have come by choke. The man squeezes his opponent’s neck like an anaconda with its prey.

Gordon will do his best to remain predator, not prey. A solid wrestler himself, Gordon averages 2.8 takedowns per fight and lands them at a 39% clip. On the feet, Gordon keeps a high output of strikes, landing 5.5 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.2. Both of these sets of stats depict who Gordon is as a fighter: a well-rounded mixed martial artist who moves forward and tests his opponents’ abilities for all 3 rounds. However, each time Gordon faces someone with an identifiable strength (power, speed, takedowns, etc), he struggles. But, when he faces another well-rounded fighter, Gordon performs well. This, along with all 4 of his losses coming by knockout, tells me that Gordon struggles when he’s the one being tested rather than being the one doing the testing.

Solecki vs. Gordon prediction

I think Gordon is solid but Solecki is very good. Gordon could survive Solecki, force him on his back foot, and pull out a decision win on the back of volume; but, I don’t see that happening. Solecki has the determination to push forward, has the cardio to keep pushing forward, and has the skills necessary to end the fight when the pressure results in a takedown. Solecki is a fighter with an identifiable strength that Gordon has struggled against historically. In fact, I think we’ll see Solecki against a ranked fighter sometime soon. First, though, I like him to beat Gordon on Saturday.

Prediction: Solecki to win