Ilia Topuria is only 24-years-old but is already 11-0 as a pro and 3-0 in the UFC. All but one of his wins have come by finish with 7 of the 11 coming by submission. Charles Jourdain, only two years older than Topuria, is 12-4 with a spotty 3-3-1 UFC record.
Betting Odds
Topuria is one of the largest favorites on the board.
- Topuria: -630
- Jourdain: +450
Breakdown
Topuria is a pressure heavy fighter who intelligently and violently hunts finishes. Topuria is varied and dangerous on the feet. He, without sacrificing balance or defense, is able to unload a variety of punches and kicks the overwhelm and drop his opponent. His total striking volume per minute is low; but, that is because Topuria pressures with takedowns as well. He averages 3.3 takedowns per fight and 3.4 submission attempts. Once on the mat, Topuria’s unique mix of strength, speed, and intelligence is on full display. He favors chokes, 6 of his 7 submissions have come by choke, but Topuria is well-rounded and can secure a wide variety of submissions. Ultimately, Topuria is the archetype of the new breed of MMA – well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. Further, I truly believe Topuria will challenge for the featherweight title in a few years because of his unique blend of patience and violence, explosiveness and balance, and devastating striking and grappling.
Jourdain is a terrible matchup for any heavy favorite; but, made even worse, Jourdain is significantly different stylistically compared to Topuria’s original opponent. Jourdain is a dangerous fighter no matter what the odds say. He is explosive, athletic, and incredibly unpredictable. Jourdain is an all-action-type fighter who is able to eat heavy strikes in order to counter with his own creative strikes. He typically disregards his own defense in favor of his offense; and, because of his chin and cardio, Jourdain has found success in these exciting wars. He is a naturally gifted fighter who losses more than he probably should because of his disregard for defense; but, as we saw when he faced Rojo in 2021, Jourdain can win emphatically too. Someone this unpredictable who is willing to make a fight into a brawl is a dangerous opponent, especially as a short notice replacement and the biggest underdog on the card.
Prediction
If this fight happens 10 times, Topuria wins 9 of them and likely all by finish. He is the more talented, dangerous, and technical fighter who can dominate wherever the fight goes. But, Jourdain is exciting to watch and will always bring the action. That, plus short notice and being a massive underdog could make Jourdain dangerous. I see Topuria as masterfully avoiding the one or two dangerous shots Jourdain tries, piecing Jourdain up on the feet, getting him down, and making it eight submission wins.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria to win by submission