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UFC 265 Predictions: Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman odds, analysis

UFC 265 Predictions: Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman odds, analysis

UFC 265 Predictions: Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman odds, analysis 3

Alonzo Menifield, the up-and-coming powerhouse of the light heavyweight division will look to test himself against the crafty veteran in Ed Herman. Menifield, a former professional football player, came up through Bellator and LFA but broke onto the UFC scene as a 2x alumni of Dana White’s Contender Series. In his 10-2 record, Menifield has finished all 10 of his wins via stoppage, 8 by knockout plus 2 submissions.

However, his surge will be challenged by Herman, the dictionary definition of veteran, who poses a threat to any young talent. A professional fighter since 2003, Herman has notable wins over some of the biggest names in the sport including David Loiseau, Patrick Cummins, and even a victory over Glover Teixeira back in 2005. He will need to lean on his experience and grit in his attempt to stop the rising phenom in his tracks.

Menifield vs. Herman betting odds

Although it’s no surprise that Menifield comes in the favorite, the gap is surprisingly large. As a good underdog per value, those who put $100 down on Ed Herman can expect to cash out at a total of $345 if he wins.

Menifield vs. Herman Breakdown

Alonzo Menifield plays the power game. With his natural physicality and athleticism, few would do well to trade with him, but his ability is backed by solid technique and understanding as well. The LA native has shown himself willing to both press forward and circle the cage on the backfoot. In order to enter, he favors a bit of a peek-a-boo style, slipping and rolling his way in and looking for big hooks.

He relies on big explosions in order to do this and will counter heavy. He is one of the most dangerous opponents to make a mistake against as it takes only one to shift the tide deep into his favor. He also has a heavy sprawl and powerful counter wrestling. However, with such explosive movement comes a lack of endurance.

With his relatively young career, Menifield lacks the experience in later rounds, a weakness evident in his loss to Devin Clark just two fights prior, where the exhausted Menifield slowed down in the second round. Unlike some of his fellow fighters, because Menifield’s background is in football and he did not come up through the combat gyms growing up, he does tend to exert too much energy even when he is working technically. A lack of comfort positionally is his biggest detriment. This is especially the case when he finds himself pushing the clinch in order to minimize damage, but saps himself of potential steam.

Ed Herman will have to exploit this disadvantage in the latter rounds and work to break Menifield down to that point. He would do well to invest in the body and hope it pays dividends late, where physicality becomes less a factor.

Herman is unique in his ability to do some of his best work with his back pressed against the cage. He is best at utilizing short elbows, knees and dirty boxing by framing off his opponents and piecing them apart bit by bit. However, as it seems at age 40, the Team Quest member has looked more labored and awkward in his last couple of outings, although awkward and effective at times. It often takes him a few minutes to find his bearings and he has taken the brunt of the exchanges in the opening minutes on more than one occasion.

Menifield vs. Herman prediction

Herman’s ability to endure and rally back has worked across his career against many opponents. These opponents, however, have not had the explosiveness to put Hermann out with just one or two shots and I think it’s a strategy that cannot play out against Menifield. If Menifield commits to his instinct early, he can get Herman out. Herman has shown an impressive chin throughout his long career only being KO’d or truly TKO’d twice (his third an injury) but a combination of Menifield’s uncommon ability and Herman’s position late in his career, leads me to pick Menifield.

Prediction: Alonzo Menifield by early round 2 stoppage

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