Welcome to S#*%ty UFC 257 Analysis, guaranteed to get you a right pick eventually based on the laws of probability.
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With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. Nothing says “expert” like a guy with started this series several months back, did it for five or so events, then stopped because “his real job” forced him away from it.
Today we’re breaking down the UFC 257 main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.
It feels like 20 years since the last time I did this and I don’t remember what my record was, so let’s just assume it was 100% right all the time. I will hopefully be back for big events and PPVs like this one, but for smaller cards, I just can’t juggle it right now. Sorry my four adoring fans, you’ll have to be patient.
With all that writer’s fluff to make the SEO longer behind us, let’s dive in!
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas
We open the inaugural 2021 PPV with a women’s strawweight matchup between Marina Rodriguez and the constant giggle machine that is Amanda Ribas. Ribas was originally scheduled to face Michelle Waterson, but when “The Karate Hottie” withdrew for undisclosed reasons, Rodriguez was willing to step up on short notice. Rodriguez is looking to bounce back from her first professional loss against Carla Esparza, while Ribas is hoping to keep the hype train going after rattling off five-straight, including sending Paige VanZant off to BKFC.
Ribas has looked good in her UFC tenure, going 4-0 in the promotion while handing Mackenzie Dern her first loss. She’s the heavy betting favorite at -300 and given her ability to disarm her opponents with laughter, it makes a lot of sense. Rodriguez on the other hand has a had strange time since knocking out Maria Oliveira on DWCS, beating Tecia Torres and Jessica Aguilar while fighting to draws against Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo.
Look I could totally see Rodriguez pulling off the upset here, or wrestling Ribas to another draw, but no one wants to see that happen so I’ll go with the consensus pick and hope we get more coal for the hype train.
Ribas via R1 Submission
Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar
Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar is the second bout on the main card, and you can understand why it’s placed in the spot that doesn’t statistically pull any numbers. Frevola is coming off of a split decision win against Luis Pena, having bested Jalin Turner by decision and fighting Lando Vannata before that. His only loss comes from a knockout by Polo Reyes, who was able to stop him at the one-minute mark of the first round back in 2018. Meanwhile, Azaitar has been finishing people pretty much since he started fighting professionally, with one unanimous decision win in his 13- 0 fight career. There is a reason he has the nickname “Bulldozer.”
I could break this fight down further but I have better things to do, like watch The Great British Bakeoff with my Mom. “Bulldozer” gonna bulldoze.
Azaitar via R1 KO
Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood
In our third fight of the night, we have what I call the cringe-ist fight of the card. I say that because when watching Joanne Calderwood fight, I can’t help but give a sad cringe when she willingly risks a title shot only to have her faint backstage when it blows up in her face. As for why I cringe when Jessica Eye fights, well in case you forgot I was there live when she did this thing.
Eye revitalized her career at flyweight and has beat some tough contenders, including Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo. “Jojo” on the other hand fought in the very first women’s flyweight bout in the UFC against Valerie Letourneau back in 2016 and has struggled to get past those in the top 5. Both women are trying to keep from falling out of relevance in the 125 lbs. division, although given how shallow it is I’m not sure that’s entirely possible.
Based on my steadfast alternating win-loss theory, both should normally be due for a victory this time around. As fate would have it, however, Eye competed in Submission Underground this past June and lost via armbar in overtime, disqualifying her from the benefits of my theory. I know it’s not MMA, but it’s listed on Tapology in the same section as MMA, so it’s basically like, the same.
“Evil” done messed up.
Joanne Calderwood via long, probably boring, UD
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler
We’ve made it to the co-main event, where backups to the main event Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler are set to faceoff. Hooker is trying to find a way back into the title picture after losing a hard-fought war against main-eventer Dustin Poirier back in June. Chandler is trying to get a win so he can get a main event at his new place of employment.
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Chandler, who was pretty much raised by Scott Coker as a son in Strikeforce and Bellator. He’s had some mildly entertaining wars with Eddie Alvarez back in the day, beaten up one of the Pitbull brothers a couple of times, and lost twice to UFC washout “ill” Will Brooks. Having knocked out old Benson Henderson before making his way over to the premier MMA promotion, he has reached a level of notoriety that some can only dream of achieving.
That being said, Hooker is no slouch. He bravely revealed his masochism fetish to the world in his loss to Edson Barboza back in 2018, for which he was applauded with the ceremonial groans of acceptance from the audience and commentary team. He also fought Paul Felder to a contentious split decision and did his part to give James Vick as much brain damage as possible. It would definitely be very chur for him to get a win over Chandler.
This one was tough, but the MMA math pulled through here. Since snapping the alternating win/loss streak back in 2017, Hooker has won four in a row, lost, then won three in a row, and lost. By all normal Tito Ortiz math calculations, he’s bound to win his next two before losing again. Chandler is also following the same path, rattling off a four-fight win streak back in 2015 before losing, then winning another three before losing. “Iron” is farther along in the process, however, as he has won his last two.
As you can see the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for Chandler at Sacrifice. I mean UFC 257.
Hooker via R1 KO
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Alright, the big main event time. This is the one that everyone is searching for, trying to become the next “Mystic Mac” by calling the exact breakdown of how this fight ends. Even the dude who is normally searching for fighter pilot Colin McGregor is actually searching for Conor and just misspelled it this time.
So for being a loyal S#*%ty MMA Analysis reader, I’m going to cut to the chase with this one. I’ve decided to give YOU a free special insight into the mind that conquers this madness, resulting in perfect picks Beastin’ 25/8. I scrounged around the internet for literally MINUTES before I found this fight, which I believe gives massive insight into the Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor matchup. As you can see, a bald trailer park type mimics Poirier’s style when fighting a young McGregor. While he’s a little bit wilder in his striking than “The Diamond,” I think McGregor handles him similarly to how he’d fight Poirier. Dustin may have found and watched this footage, enabling him to prepare for McGregor’s game plan, but I highly doubt it.
This is pretty much a lock, and when you cash out whatever weirdly-named cryptocurrency you’re constantly trying to force on your friends and family, you can thank me by singing my praises to the masses.
McGregor via R1 TKO
UFC 257 streams live this Saturday, January 23, on the
Patrick is a consultant turned journalist who loves the fight game and everything to do with it. Focusing on the politics, business, and general state of MMA are his mainstays, though he'll dabble in analysis and best bets when he can. He also enjoys football, basketball, baseball, and great jokes in general so feel free to reach out and berate him on social media whenever you disagree with him.