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Prediction: Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker | UFC 278 odds

Prediction: Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker | UFC 278 odds

Tyson Pedro

Harry Hunsucker may very well be fighting for his job this weekend at UFC 278 when he takes on his third Australian opponent in a row. Tyson Pedro, a teammate of Tai Tuivasa, who Hunsucker fought just two fights ago, will be welcoming the American into the 205lb division as Hunsucker travels down from heavyweight.

While Hunsucker may have lost his first two fights in the UFC, he does boast a solid seven victories outside the promotion and has been looking to replicate that same success. Pedro, on the other hand, has been with the UFC  since 2016 and has so far picked up such names as Khalil Rountree Jr. and Paul Craig, along with two other victories.

In 2018, in a loss to Shogun Rua, Pedro tore his ACL, resulting in three surgeries and three years away from the sport. In his return earlier this year against Ike Villanueva, the Polenesyian fighter looked in his best form yet and looks to continue the momentum this Saturday.

Betting Odds

Harry Hunsucker will be a whopping +500 underdog, with Pedro an even larger favorite at -769. Those who bet on Hunsucker can expect $501 in profit per $100 bet, should he pull off the upset.

Breakdown

Tyson Pedro is a very confident yet disciplined fighter. At ease on the octagon, he stands extremely tall with a lower, more relaxed guard and teases his opponent by hand fighting with an outstretched arm. However, when engaging, he has extraordinarily fast strikes, not only due to his athleticism but also because he is very concise with his punches. There is very little fat on anything he throws, and they are tight to the body, getting from A to B as swiftly as possible. He has a nice counter-check left hook, and his jab-cross down the pipe is likely his best weapon. Prior to unleashing it, quick low kicks and teeps draw out reactions from his opponents to open up his counters or his cut through the guard down the middle.

Harry Hunsucker, by comparison, is much wilder in his striking approach. His punches come from odd angles, and although he has tremendous hand speed, the wideness of his shots sometimes leaves his punches lingering a second to long. However, being especially quick for heavyweight, he may be able to hang with the speed at 205lbs with added power, which he also possessed especially in his right hand at 265lbs. His left hook is a recurring tool which he throws wide and long, sometimes landing with the forearm but with a surprisingly long distance bridge for a man his size. He has a very good linear blitz especially leading with his 3-2 combination or left hook to right cross. He has shown in the past very swift inside leg kicks from the left, although has not utilized them as often as he could for such an effective, and technical weapon.

Likely on the feet, either man has the power to knock each other out. Pedro’s punches come from slightly lower than normal due to his relaxed guard, making them even harder to anticipate, but this does leave his head open at times, particularly when he smells blood. At the same time, the openings provided by Hunsucker when he throws wide or loads up is exactly what the tight-knit striking of Pedro is made for, I expect him to find the holes inside Hunsucker’s punches and land quicker counters on the inside.

If the fight goes to the ground, it may be a matter of who scrambles into top position. Tyson Pedro has a fantastic kimura sweep from bottom side control, but when he has been unable to finish it, he has found himself unable to escape the bottom. Hunsucker so far has had difficulty with quicker fighters who can circle his back and scramble over him, but if he lands on top for whatever reason, the added weight he may carry down from heavyweight could be an aid. Ultimately Pedro should have a slight advantage but expect both men to entertain the kickboxing match as long as possible.

Prediction

At the end of the day, Pedro is the favorite for a reason. He has cleaner striking and a cleaner record coming into this level of fight. On top of this, while Hunsucker will be carrying added size into the bout and speed to rival light heavyweights, his quickness advantage at 265lbs now becomes more standard in the lower division.

Prediction: Tyson Pedro to win via KO (bet now at MyBookie)

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