Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez prediction | UFC Fight Night 239 1

Thiago Moises was first scheduled at Fight Night 239 against Brad Riddell. On February 14, Riddell officially pulled himself from the card, leaving Moises without an opponent; however, now stepping up on short notice is UFC newcomer Mitch Ramirez.

Nicknamed “The Fight Stalker,” Ramirez first got a crack at entering the UFC when he was brought onto the Contender Series in 2023. Although he lost the fight, a comeback victory in LFA a few months later earned him his opportunity this weekend. That loss stands as the only loss on his professional record at 8-1.

Betting Odds

Ramirez finds himself a big underdog in his UFC debut.

  • Thiago Moises: -360 (BetUS)
  • Mitch Ramirez: +280 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Mitch Ramirez typically fights in a conventional stance. However, when last facing a southpaw in Carlos Prates, he proved that he was willing and comfortable enough to fight a southpaw for the entire duration of the fight. Being able to confidently fight from either side is an asset, especially in this fight.

Ramirez traditionally looks to fight in the same stance as his opponent but will switch step to cover distance. That being said, Moises is coming off of a loss to a southpaw where, early on, he ate many body kicks because of the mirrored stances. Ramirez may look to switch up his stance throughout to attack that open side, at the same time Moises also likes that open side body kick on southpaws so it is a double edged sword.

Ramirez is a lead fighter, he sometimes struggles when put on the defensive as he does not have the quickest counters. At his best, he wants to move forward, box his way into range, and shoot takedowns on the cage. He does a good job of rolling and weaving behind his punches, which lets him exit or hit the hips successfully.

Watch particularly for his 1-2, roll under left hook. He also utilizes good low kicks, and has low kick finishes in his pre-UFC record. While he does a good job of slipping and rolling within his own combinations, he does tend to leave himself exposed to straight punches if he is not initiating the exchange.

Thiago Moises is definitely the lighter fighter on the feet. He will move around with a relaxed but responsible guard and look to jab his way Into a power right hand. He fills the gap with good body kicks, and head kicks. When he does explode forward he extends his stance and changes level, almost like throwing a point karate reverse punch. He does not extend his weight over the lead, so he is well-balanced.

Although Moises is probably the faster fighter, as well as the more diverse striker, Ramirez will likely hold a bit of a power advantage. If Moises finds himself in trouble on the feet, he has a good hunter hook with his back to the cage as he rolls with shots, and he is also the better grappler by far at least on paper. Moises primarily utilizes top game jiu-jitsu but has a wicked leg lock game as well as a versatile guard.

He likes to shoot single legs and drive to the cage to either complete by pulling off the cage on an angle or coming up for clinch trips. He will abandon failed shots to roll onto a leg, as well as transition from defending takedowns to leg attacks. At any point that Ramirez ties up with Moises he has to be careful because Moises can switch to hunting a submission from anywhere.


Due to the last-minute replacement Moises finds himself fighting a much less experienced fighter in Ramirez. Although Ramirez has shown finishing instincts and looks to be a well-rounded fighter, the same can be said about Moises, with the added benefit of UFC experience and a world-class grappling pedigree.

One major lesson Moises can take from losing to Benoit Saint Denis in his last fight is to be first and avoid taking a defensive posture too often. If he really forces this in his return, it will become especially problematic for the lead-oriented Ramirez, and with the difference in competition experience, it’s the perfect fight for Moises to try and make these adjustments.

Pick: Thiago Moises to win (-360 at BetUS)

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