Welcome to S#*%ty UFC Predictions, guaranteed to get you a right pick eventually based on the laws of probability.
Order UFC 281
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is tonight! Watch every UFC 281 fight here.
- Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. How can someone who Chael Sonnen once called “A nice fan” not be an expert at this stuff?
Today we’re breaking down the Waterson vs. Hill main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.
We went 0-3 last week, but sometimes you just get extremely unlucky in the analysis game. Who would have thought that Michel Pereira would be looking at a possible no contest because of the ref and not because of an illegal strike? Also, out of all the fights that ended up dropping off last week’s card due to COVID-19, I ended up picking the wrong one so I’ve got to give a hats off to Dana White for managing to trick me once again. Well done you beautiful, bald son of a bitch.
It’s time to turn this ship around, so let’s dive in!
Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson
Billy Quarantillo signed with the UFC last year after being offered a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series and is currently riding a seven-fight win streak coming into this matchup. Having bested Mel Gibson’s protégé this past May, Billy Q tends to be in exciting fights regardless of his opponent, making him fun to watch as he wades through the swamp of unranked fighters as he attempts to climb the featherweight ladder. Five of those seven wins have come by way of stoppage, so it’s already looking not great for the other dude.
Kyle Nelson hasn’t found the same success in the UFC as Quarantillo. Nelson has been stopped in two out of his three fights in the octagon, with his lone win coming over Polo Reyes nearly a year ago. For someone nicknamed “The Monster” you gotta wonder if we’re talking about a mythical creature that keeps kids awake at night or the guy that takes pleasure in telling kids there’s no such thing as Santa Clause and makes them cry during the day. I’m guessing the later, and a dude named Billy Q knocking out that type of guy makes all the sense in the world.
Quarantillo via R1 TKO
Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez
Ol’ “Short Fuse” Ed Herman is still in the fight game after nearly two decades, with Saturday marking bout number 26 under the UFC’s banner in some 14 odd years with the promotion. Having been stuck on the carousel of ever-changing opponents during the pandemic, Herman has lived up to his nickname by refusing to stick around and take a short-notice fight against Kevin Holland after both his and Holland’s opponents dropped out of their scheduled matchups in August. Clearly, such reckless actions indicate a “short fuse” on the anger management side.
Mike Rodriguez on the other hand has gone 2-2-1 in the UFC since winning a Contender Series contract way back in 2017, with the one no contest being a decision loss to John Allan that was overturned after Allan popped for the juice. While Rodriguez does have several first-round finishes to his name, he goes by the nickname of “Slow,” which to me indicates his previous opponents really need to work on their head and body movement. It’s not like he’s throwing combinations you can’t see coming.
This fight will probably be a first-round finish for Rodrigeuz or a long, drawn-out decision for Herman. Since Herman is probably still fuming over all the opponent changes and that whole “Here’s $10,000 for showing up to your fight instead of your normal $54,000!” thing the UFC did to him back in August, I’m guessing he’ll take out his frustrations on the promotion by making viewers wonder what else is on.
Herman via Decision
Andrea Lee vs. Roxanne Modafferi
Next up is Andrea Lee vs. Roxanne Modafferi, in a fight that is pretty much destined to go to a decision. Both are coming off of losses to Lauren Murphy and both have looked pretty good against “Wait, who is that again?” competition in the women’s flyweight division. Modafferi’s biggest win has come against Maycee Barber after Barber tore her ACL against “The Happy Warrior,” while Lee’s losses against Murphy and Joanne Calderwood were both by split decision.
Normally I’d rule Lee’s split decision losses ahead of Modafferi’s refusal to finish a fight even when the opponent is on one leg, but Modafferi has also alternated wins and losses since 2017. If you’ve read the other two installments of this series, that’s pretty much the hard and fast MMA math rule I live by and it’s never been wrong in all of history as far as I can tell.
Modafferi via Decision
Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar
Positioned in the co-main event as a way to balance out the 15-minute bout that precedes them, Khama Worthy and Ottman Azaitar will do their best to continue their streaks of not leaving it in the hands of judges since being called up to the big show. Azaitar is a perfect 12-0 after starching some guy I’ve never heard of in his promotional debut at UFC 242 and Worthy was last seen angering hipster and weed-toking MMA fans alike by choking out Luis Pena back in June. The oddsmakers have this at a near pick’em, which is strange considering the nicknames of “Bulldozer” and “The Death Star” distinctly favor one fighter over the other.
Upon further consideration, bulldozers don’t have the capability to shoot proton torpedos into exhaust vents, so Worthy has this in the bag. Can’t wait to see the HUGE overlap of MMA and Star Wars fans geek about out this.
Worthy via R2 TKO
Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill
In what’s being billed as an accidental historic main event by virtually no one (despite it being the truth) Michelle Waterson will face Angela Hill in the first UFC bout headlined by an African American woman after Glover Texiera tested positive for COVID-19 and scrapped the original headliner. “Overkill” has been a tear as of late, going 3-1 in her last four fights with her lone loss coming by controversial split decision against Claudia Gadelha. Conversely, Waterson has proven that while she can outpoint the likes of Felice Herrig and the human punching bag that was once Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she struggles with higher-level competition such as Joanna Jedrzejczyk and cookie-consuming phenom Carla Esparza.
Known for her legendary weigh-in cosplays, a lot of this is going to come down to what character Hill decides to embody during fight week. If she goes for a Street Fighter character like Guile who is a decent boxer with control over sonic waves, Hill is most likely in for a bad night given sonic booms are unfortunately banned in the new unified ruleset. If “Overkill” instead opts for a film character like Ronda Rousey from the Entourage movie, she’ll suck at acting but have great judo and seem two weight classes heavier than she’ll actually be on fight night.
Unfortunately for Hill, “The Karate Hottie” has gotten pretty good at being an atomweight who cosplays as a strawweight, and I think that constant character development is going to give her the slight edge in what should be a close back-and-forth bout.
Waterson via Split Decision
Patrick is a consultant turned journalist who loves the fight game and everything to do with it. Focusing on the politics, business, and general state of MMA are his mainstays, though he'll dabble in analysis and best bets when he can. He also enjoys football, basketball, baseball, and great jokes in general so feel free to reach out and berate him on social media whenever you disagree with him.