Welcome to S#*%ty MMA Analysis, guaranteed to get you a right pick eventually based on the laws of probability.
Order UFC 281
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is tonight! Watch every UFC 281 fight here.
- Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. Nothing says “expert” like a guy with glasses who was once asked by his Uncle why
Today we’re breaking down the Overeem vs. Sakai main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.
Last week we lost a fight last minute to COVID-19 (shocker, I know) and ended up going 2 for 3 on our predictions, which according to a song that many of you are too young to know, is not bad. Also, while Lamas did end up fighting someone from a random corner from the regional MMA scene, he did not thoroughly beat him down. This coupled with Jason “Mayhem” Miller getting arrested again for various crimes means that “Bully Beatdown” will unfortunately not be making its triumphant return.
With that tragedy behind us, let’s dive in!
Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner
You know we’re in a for a hell of a main card when the opening matchup is between two guys who have alternated losses and wins since being called up from Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2018. Moises’ most notable win comes from ankle locking the choke artist formerly known as Michael Johnson, while Turner’s claim to fame is that he got knocked out by Vicente Luque on the Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor undercard. I don’t know where these guys are officially ranked at 155 lbs., but I’m guessing it’s somewhere between “Huh?” and “Who?”
Right away I’m drawn to Moises’ ability to submit “The Menace” because it’s the only name that means something to me without having to do any actual research. Since both are technically due for a loss based on their pattern of winning and losing, however, there is a solid chance that this fight will end in a draw or disqualification in order to maintain balance in the MMA world. Despite that, I’m gonna assume Moises has become the next Ryan Hall, and we’re getting back-to-back ankle locks, making Kurt Angle proud.
Moises via R2 Submission
Michel Pereira vs. Zelim Imadaev
Even if you don’t recognize Pereira’s name, you’d probably recognize him as the man trying to legitimize parkour as a martial arts style. Known for his never-ending flips and constant spinning attacks, he managed to achieve a feat that no one thought possible by losing to Diego Sanchez via disqualification in 2020. At 1-2 in the UFC overall, he might look cool when he fights, but it doesn’t seem to translate into constant cool-looking wins.
Zelim Imadaev is one of the countless examples of an undefeated Russian coming into the UFC only to learn that the former land of the Soviet Union is not rife with great competition. Having gone 0-2 in the organization with a knockout loss to Danny Roberts, who Pereira knocked out in the first round, Imadaev hasn’t looked great. It’s safe to assume that without a win here, he’ll be recycled out for a newer Russian model that will arrive in the UFC by the following Tuesday.
The MMA math transitive property here heavily favors Pereira, but luckily for Imadaev the statistics on Pereira’s constant disregard for the rules about illegal blows means it’s inevitable he DQ’s himself again. I’m clearly a big math guy, so Imadaev is gonna get a gift here.
Imadaev via DQ R1
Sijara Eubanks vs. Karol Rosa
Remember when Sijara Eubanks was supposed to fight for the inaugural flyweight championship? Remember when she almost headlined UFC 230 against Valentina Shevchenko at Madison Square Garden and everybody was like “Wait, What?” Oh, what might have been…
Karol Rosa, on the other hand, has won a couple of decisions in the promotion and is apparently not allowed to fight Julia Alivia, as a bout between her and the “Raging Panda” has been canceled four separate times in the span of eight months. Her biggest name win comes back in 2014 when she managed to beat Jessica Andrade by decision in a regional Brazilian promotion. It wasn’t the former UFC strawweight champion, just someone with the same name, but it totally still counts.
A win over the namesake of a former champion against someone who has had champion fights canceled on them twice? No further analysis needed.
Karol Rosa via decision
Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield
This bout was supposed to happen two weeks ago but was moved after St. Preux tested positive for the coronavirus right before the fight. This is what we in the biz like to call a “Dana Pullout,” because the promotion knows that a positive test is likely to show up again and they’re just putting it on the card to mess with bettors and prediction artists like myself. Nice try UFC, but I learned from the Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba fight that rescheduling a matchup a couple of weeks after a positive COVID-19 test means it’s just gonna get canceled again, this time probably the day of the event.
Bout doesn’t happen, gets rescheduled for November
Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai
In the main event, we have Alistair Overeem, who gets more guaranteed show money that pretty much every current UFC champion, facing off against Augusto Sakai, who only makes six figures if he happens to win. This will be Sakai’s first headliner since he made his way over the UFC from Bellator, earning the honor after beating Blagoy Ivanov by split decision in what can only be described as “a bout that filled an
The last time Overeem fought someone with knockout power who had never been finished before, he dominated the fight until deciding he should double-check to see if his chin had grown back for the umpteenth time in the last five seconds of the contest. Although Sakai has proven that his power comes and goes by managing to finish Marcin Tybura while going the distance with Andrei Arlovski, Overeem is the biggest fan I know of getting a chin-check in important fights, giving Sakai plenty of opportunities to power up the ol’ right hand and land a knockout blow. Overeem will dominate pretty much everywhere until the big punch lands in round 5, blowing up his chances at getting another shot at the title and lending truth to his nickname “The Demolition Man.”
Sakai via R5 TKO
Patrick is a consultant turned journalist who loves the fight game and everything to do with it. Focusing on the politics, business, and general state of MMA are his mainstays, though he'll dabble in analysis and best bets when he can. He also enjoys football, basketball, baseball, and great jokes in general so feel free to reach out and berate him on social media whenever you disagree with him.