Rodolfo “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira, 34, is 4-2 in the UFC, with all four of his wins coming via submission. His grappling success is unsurprising, given his jiu-jitsu pedigree prior to joining the UFC.
Armen “Superman” Petrosyan, 32, is 3-1 in the UFC since earning a contract through a first-round knockout on DWCS in 2021. All four of his UFC fights have gone the distance.
Betting Odds
The odds for this one have flipped back and forth all week and are currently settled on a pick’em.
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Fight Breakdown
Vieira is one of the most decorated and accredited jiu-jitsu practitioners to join the UFC. His nickname, “The Black Belt Hunter,” is less arrogant than it is accurate. If he gets into a scramble or lands on top of his opponent, his immense strength, fluidity, grappling knowledge, and high-level experience all typically translate to submission victory. Early in his UFC tenure, Vieira ran through a low level of competition without much of his game testes beyond his grappling.
However, when he ran into a fighter who pushed Vieira into deeper water and tested his full MMA skillset, the hunter became the hunted and Vieira was the one who ended up being submitted. This surprise illuminated two key gaps in the Brazilian’s game: his gas tank and his wrestling. Since then, Vieira’s gas tank has improved to allow him to shoot multiple takedowns in a fight: 7 attempts last time and 20 attempts the fight prior. However, his wrestling skill has left a lot to be desired, only landing 26% of his shots and going 1 for his last 27.
Petrosyan has been an underdog in all but one of his UFC fights, not counting this fight that currently sits at pick’em. His underdog trend speaks to both his style and his opponents. Petrosyan has fought and beat a true UFC veteran in Robo Cop and a true up-and-coming prospect in CDL. He’s also fought and lost to another surging prospect, also on this card, in Borralho.
In his short career, Petrosyan has been tossed among the wolves and proven he can survive, even thrive. His style also impacts his betting lines. Petrosyan is a kickboxer through and through. His kicking game is fast, dynamic, and powerful. However, the rest of his game relies on instinct, athleticism, and a willingness to take risks. While striking in the pocket, Petrosyan’s boxing is basic but his ability to land consistently because of his speed and athleticism helps him make up for any technical gaps.
The same is true with his grappling. Petrosyan scrambles with enthusiasm because if the fight hits the mat, he is often in trouble of being controlled. That enthusiasm and explosiveness, though, has resulted in him being more challenging to takedown than many expected.
Prediction
With a clash of styles this extreme, this fight boils down to whether or not Vieira can get the takedown. Vieira has world-class BJJ, while Petrosyan’s ground game is embryonic. However, given Vieira’s struggles with wrestling and Petrosyan’s basic but effective scrambling, this fight could be a cruise-control-like sparring session for “Superman.”
On paper, I would hammer the Petrosyan line. I’ve been impressed with his lateral movement and athletic takedown defense; and, while his striking has been less powerful than advertised, it’s still miles beyond Vieira. However, just like a heavyweight with a one-punch knockout edge, if Petrosyan makes a single mistake, he could get finished soon after. Fortunately, a hedge opportunity presents itself.
Vieira’s most likely, or possibly only, chance to win is via submission. Currently, his submission odds are sitting at +200, while Petrosyan just to win is at even money. My official pick is Petrosyan to win at -110, but a small sprinkle on Vieira by sub is a comforting hedge.
Pick: Petrosyan to win (-110 at BetUS)
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