Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes prediction | UFC 290
We have a big strawweight matchup featuring two hot prospects on the prelims of UFC 290 between Yazmin Jauregui and Denise Gomes. These are two of the most high-pressure fighters in the division, and it’ll be exciting to see them clash as this one is sure to be a banger for as long as it lasts.
Both ladies have yet to turn 25 and are still early in their UFC careers but they are two of the most dangerous up-and-comers the 115 lbs division has to offer and will definitely be matchups many top 15 fighters avoid in the future.
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Betting Odds
Mexico’s Jauregui will be a heavy favorite for this strawweight matchup which is understandable. She’s absolutely one of the most talented prospects in women’s MMA and we’ve yet to see where she’s beatable. Gomes will be looking to cash big as the underdog and show everyone where those areas lie:
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Fight Breakdown
One of the best young prospects in the entire UFC, Yazmin Jauregui, is yet another talented fighter coming out of Mexico to be showcased on International Fight Week. Jauregui, 10-0, is only 24 years old but fights with a very high fight IQ and a well-rounded attack. Her main strength is her striking. She’s incredibly quick with her entries as well as her combos. She almost always throws multiple shots and can do so at a super high pace for 15 minutes.
Yazmin doesn’t look like she carries as much power in her shots as she does. Given her speed, you wouldn’t expect to see her strikes have the effect they do on her opponents. This is best showcased in her most recent bout against Istela Nunes as she fired off lightning-fast combos with swift footwork that dropped her opponent multiple times. Jauregui is intense and moves forward constantly, giving no breaks to her opponent as she looks to land. Underrated are her kicks that are very quick and well dispersed mostly between the head and leg. She uses these well to mix up her onslaught and keep her opponent unaware of where the next strike will come from.
Her defense on the feet when at range is solid. She keeps a high, disciplined guard and tucks her chin well behind her shoulders. She does tend to get into range without throwing a jab, feinting or moving her head which leaves her open for counters on her entries. This may be due to “octagon jitters” as it tends to fade as the fight goes on, but she can still leave herself open for counters when she’s throwing down in the pocket.
An area that Jauregui has yet to be able to show is the ground game. Though she’s a good grappler with solid takedowns and nasty ground and pound, a majority of her success throughout her career has been piecing up opponents on the feet. Final point to touch on for Jauregui is her ability to make adjustments mid-fight. Whether it be adjustments to the game plan offensively, defensively or something as subtle as her footwork and head movement when entering, she’s aware when she makes mistakes and listens to her corner to make the right adjustment.
Her opponent, Denise Gomes, is another highly-touted prospect at 115 lbs coming into this one at 7-2. The 23-year-old is one of the youngest women on the roster and already has 2 fights with the UFC and 1 in DWCS (going 2-1 in those 3).
Gomes is a powerful striker with good defensive posture and a large arsenal of weapons from the feet. She has powerful kicks that have little telegraph and a strong, looping right hand. She uses these kicks and power punches to back her opponent down and hunt them along the cage.
She doesn’t often use her wrestling offensively, but she does good work from the clinch and as a grappler as well. She favors attacking submissions to ground and pound when she’s on top and will mostly look for kimura sweeps off her back to reverse position. She looks to have a great motor as she’s gone the full three rounds twice (including her DWCS) and looked like she carried power all the way through.
Her striking can get a bit wild when she enters and she can start almost running with strikes when it’s more than one strike. She usually favors a one or two-strike combo to throwing more in bulk as she throws with a ton of power in every shot. In these wild flurries, she’ll enter with her shoulders square and chin up which can get her caught against high-level counter strikers. Her wrestling defense has also been shown to be an area that needs work as she was taken down with relative ease against Loma Lookboonmee in her UFC debut.
Prediction
This fight should be an absolute war between two of the most game women in the strawweight division. They both love to fight with pressure and be the one controlling the center. Jauregui is the more technical striker with a lot of speed and good power, but Gomes likely holds the advantage when it comes to one-shot power. In the wrestling department, we haven’t seen a ton from Jauregui, but she has shown flashes of good clinch work and has yet to be taken down in the UFC.
I’d expect Gomes to try and make this fight dirty and up close, likely in the clinch where she can throw her knees and elbows and try to overpower Yazmin. If the fight stays standing and is kept mostly as a striking affair, I don’t see Jauregui losing this one. She’s fought a similar fighter to Gomes in Iasmin Lucindo who is a very good prospect in her own right and won that fight unanimously. Gomes’ striking is very loose and can be sluggish at times which will give Jauregui time to enter and exit with her combos to get Gomes swinging at air with her power shots. It goes for both women but especially Gomes, she’ll need to utilize her kicks (primarily to the leg) to slow down Jauregui’s forward pressure and try to wear down her movement. Jauregui is largely untested on the ground, so I’d look for Gomes to try to wrestle at some point and see if she can find success here.
I like Gomes a lot and I hate to see one of the two prospects lose their momentum as a result of this fight, but Jauregui has looked nothing short of a future title contender since her arrival in the UFC and I expect her to keep this fight on the feet and work her game plan. Her in-fight adjustments, striking prowess and overall athleticism should all be factors that lead her to a win this weekend. Gomes is resilient and hasn’t looked to be hurt too often plus she does cover up well when strikes come her way so I’d look for Jauregui to win it on the scorecards.
Best Bet: Jauregui by Dec (+125 at BetUS)
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