Jailton Almeida

This Saturday, Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, will erupt as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida lock horns in a UFC Fight Night main event.

Rozenstruik, the #9 ranked contender, is an explosive striker with a knack for knockouts. Opposite him, Almeida, the #12 ranked contender and a Dana White’s Contender Series signee, is a rising UFC star with an undefeated record in the Octagon.

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You’ll be able to put our predictions to the test this week as our team has put their MMA expertise to work, dissecting this fight from every angle to provide you with the most informed predictions. And we’ve done the same for other key UFC on ABC 4 bouts:

Whether you’re a seasoned MMA fan or just testing the waters, this is a fight card you don’t want to miss.

Betting Odds

Jailton Almeida is a huge betting favorite at odds of -550 with popular bookmaker BetUS. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a heavy underdog with current odds of +375 before the UFC on ABC 4 main event.

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik: +375 (BetUS)
  • Jailton Almeida: -550 (BetUS)

Staff Predictions

Braeden Arbour

Jairzinho Rozenstruik can knock out any man on the planet if he lands flush. He is a decorated kickboxer with accurate and deadly striking. Normally, he stands in a short stance, with small twitchy movements. He will take control and maintain the center of the octagon, pressing his opponent with single shots to draw out a reaction. He then looks to land a bigger counter, or combination moving forward.

He has excellent timing on his jumping knee, as well as his overhand right or right hook. He will throw the latter every time he catches a kick on his left side and it is devastating. The other technique to watch out for is his leaping left hook, however, he tends to drag his rear leg very closely keeping his stance short which presents a perfect opportunity for his opponents to time and execute a counter takedown.

Jailton Almeida will be looking to do just this, although he usually shoots on the front foot rather than as a counter. Almeida almost immediately looks to threaten his opponents with big dramatic movements and strikes to get them backing up to the cage at which point he hits the double leg attempt.

Against the cage, he locks his hands and elevates into a slam, and sticks to his opponents like glue. He is great at riding in top position, allowing his opponents just enough space to buck and try to escape, or give up their back without getting shucked off. He likes to grapevine the legs from mount or keep a tight back mount.

For the most part, Almeida will always look to attack submissions first, but if unsuccessful, posturing up and hitting very patient and accurate ground and pound as a second option. He will pick his shots but land slicing elbows through the guard. One of his favorite tactics is getting head and arm position from the back and then allowing his opponent to turn into him to escape the back and directly into the arm triangle.

One of the reasons Almeida is a difficult matchup for Rozenstruik is not only does Rozenstruik struggle with good wrestlers once they get on his hips, but even at range he has to change his style to have success in the stand-up. He has been known to shy away from kicks against good takedown artists, forcing him to work almost a pure boxing attack apart from the odd well-timed knee down the middle.

He is also such an effective counterpuncher because he moves the minimal distance he needs to avoid strikes so that he can hold the center of the cage. Against Almeida, moving back but not out of range means he will be in place for the level change behind Almeida’s strikes.

Although it is a big jump in competition, Almeida’s fighting style is one of the best matched up with Rozenstruik’s skills and weaknesses. At -550 it would be difficult to make much of a profit on Almeida as the favorite so the move here is to either go Almeida by stoppage given his track record, at a less difficult -350 or better yet, use Almeida as a parlay booster.

Pick: Jailton Almeida by stoppage (-350 odds at BetUS)

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Michael Pounders

Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida, 31, is the future, coming sooner than later, of the heavyweight division. That is not to say he will hold the belt, as Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, Sergei Pavlovich, and Ciryl Gane will have something to say about that; but, Almeida is, without question, in that tier of contenders. He just doesn’t have the resume yet.

Almeida, who is self-proclaimed the “Brazilian Khabib” is an explosive and highly skilled wrestler with lethal finishing ability on the mat. Almeida is hyper-athletic, unbelievably strong, and highly explosive. He tends to strike a bit early in fights, mainly with feints and basic boxing combinations. The goal of his striking, which lacks technique, is to open up the hips of his opponent. As soon as the opportunity presents itself, Almeida almost spears forward, into a unique double leg shot, gets his opponent down, grapevines the legs, and quickly hunts the finish. He generates insane power in his takedowns, lands devastating ground and pound, even from guard, and has slick submissions in his arsenal as well.

To put it simply, until now, no one in the UFC has been able to keep Almeida from landing a takedown and no one has survived once he lands it. The question about Almeida’s game that this fight is designed to answer is if he can safely land a takedown against a truly powerful opponent. Almeida’s striking is better than bad but not good either and his chin is often exposed on the feet. Against the top five of the division, no matter how good his wrestling and grappling are, an exposed chin is dangerous.

Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik, now 35, is a deceptively athletic and heavy-handed kickboxer with solid takedown defense and an ability to end the fight in an instant. When he’s at his best, Rozenstruik is an explosive counter striker who lulls his opponents into making a mistake with low volume and an almost disinterested demeanor. Then, once an opponent over extends, Rozenstruik blasts forward with a snapping body kick, highlight reel upper cut, or an unforgiving combination. In those moments, if Rozenstruik lands cleanly, he often gets his hand raised while his opponent is finding the stool.

Like many others in the division, Rozenstruik does his best work early in fights when his cardio allows for high energy movements and big power. All of his UFC wins, outside of the one huge highlight reel finish, have come inside of 1.5 rounds. Rozenstruik struggles, though, when he tries to implement his countering game plan but gets caught staring into a mirror. This has happened against Ngannou, Gane, Blaydes, and Volkov. In those fights, Rozenstruik landed 5, 42, 18, and 6 total strikes, respectively. Whether it was the big power coming his way that made him cautious and hesitant or the level of competition that didn’t allow for openings, Rozenstruik has a real issue when he doesn’t let his weapons loose.

This fight features a fighter with a -550 price tag and the unofficial nickname of “The Brazilian Khabib” against an aging heavyweight who is 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Barring a Juliana Pena-style knockout, Almeida is going to win this fight. The trick is figuring out how to bet it.

Everyone is expecting, rightly so, for Almeida to get the finish on the mat; he has an exceptional wrestling and grappling game. However, betting on the method is a dangerous coin flip. Once he’s on top, it will be Rozenstruik’s choice on how he gets finished, not Almeida’s. What I mean by that is when Almeida lands on top, Rozenstruik will either stay on his back and cover up, resulting in an Almeida TKO. Or, Rozenstruik will avoid punishment, roll over, give up his back, and get submitted.

In a situation where the massive favorite has two possible paths to victory and the likely losing fighter is the one to decide, I do not recommend betting a method. It’s a coin flip.

Instead, I much prefer betting Almeida to win in round one. He should dominate from the opening minute; and, even though, recently, Almeida has gone late into the first round, I expect him to fight with urgency as the main event. Next up might be Almeida’s shot at a real name in Curtis Blaydes.

Best Bet: Almeida to win in round 1 (-110 odds at BetUS)

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