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UFC 276 Prediction: Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green

UFC 276 Prediction: Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green

UFC 276 Prediction: Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green 3

Ian “The Future” Garry vs. Gabe “Gifted” Green poses an interesting stylistic matchup between a technical and talented fighter with flaws against a limited but constantly aggressive fighter.

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Garry is only 24 years old with a perfect 9-0 record. He’s fought and won twice since joining the UFC. Green, five years older, is 11-3 as a professional and is 2-1 in the UFC.

UFC 276 is a PPV event and will stream only on ESPN+ in the United States this Saturday night. Order the PPV here to watch every fight live.

Betting Odds

Despite his hype, Garry is a slight favorite in his fight against Green.

Breakdown

Many people, myself included, have been waiting to fade Garry since he’s joined the UFC. He is a talented fighter with pristine technique, however, he is still young and has flaws. Yet, especially in his first fights, Garry was promoted as a world-beater. Because of his skill and hype, finding the right spot for the fade is important. Garry is a complete mixed martial artist with the striking and grappling skillset to take him into the rankings.

On the feet, at range, Garry keeps a karate-style base and moves laterally often to set up heavy but precise counter shots. Then, if an opponent crashes distance, Garry will quickly look to engage the clinch, pivot his hips, and pin his opponent against the cage. From here, Garry often methodically holds position while attempting to grind his opponent to the mat. Once down, although not yet shown in the UFC, Garry has vicious ground and pound along with a solid submission game. Those are the positives for Garry and the reason for his hype entering the UFC.

He has shown a few key flaws in his early career. First, and most prevalent, has been his decision making. He has seemed tentative at times in the fight, unwilling to pounce on an injured opponent; instead, he’s been willing to take his time and allow his foe to regain composure and continue the fight. Secondly, Garry carries his chin high and hands low, a commonality with karate-style fighters. His lateral movement helps protect his chin, but once an opponent cuts off the cage, Garry has been hit cleanly. Third, and lastly, Garry is a counter striker who often prefers his opponents to move into his range where he can bait them into moving into his shots. However, thus far, pressure fighters have been able to eat Garry’s shots and keep moving forward. Against these pressure fighters, Garry has survived and won but hasn’t had a backup plan if his bait and attack approach fails. Garry is a unique mix of talented but still learning, he won’t go undefeated but has ranked-level ability; so, analyzing the matchup is of the utmost importance when handicapping his fights.

Green is a simple yet effective fighter. He fights with a ton of heart and a ton of aggression, even if that heart and aggression gets him into bad spots. Defensively, Green is hittable and often enters and exits on the center line. Undeterred by counter shots, Green will continue to move forward on the center line, willing to take a shot to land a shot. Outside of two early knockout losses, Green has showcased a reliable chin and an ability to rally from behind for victories.

On the mat, Green is solid when in top position but struggles to get up from his back. Typically, because of his constant pressure, Green rarely has to defensively wrestle. More often, he dictates where and how the fight takes place. Offensively, Green’s striking has some pop but he doesn’t have one-punch knockout power. Instead, Green will often compile damage as the fight goes on, outsurviving and out landing his opponents for a late finish or bloody decision win.

Prediction

Green’s pressure and in-your-face style will likely be the reason he wins or loses. If he can pressure Garry successfully, cut off the cage, and force Garry into stationary exchanges, Green’s toughness and unrelenting volume will result in a win. However, if Green pressures recklessly, he could walk into one of Garry’s traps and get caught clean. If Garry is the aggressor, difficult to do against Green, he could offensively wrestle his way to a control-heavy decision or submission.

This should be a fun scrap and although Green is a popular underdog for his style, I anticipate Garry slightly outclassing him on the feet and mixing in his wrestling if things get dicey.

Pick: Ian Garry to win (-180 odds at MyBookie)

UFC 276 is a PPV event and will stream only on ESPN+ in the United States this Saturday night. Order the PPV here to watch every fight live.

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