Tim Elliott makes his walk to the Octagon (Zuffa LLC)

Tim Elliott, now 36, has amassed an 18-12 MMA record and is 7-10 in the UFC. Despite his below .500 record, Elliott is still the #11 ranked flyweight in the UFC and has won 3 of his last 4 fights.

Victor “El Magnifico” Altamirano, 32, is 2-0 since dropping his debut via split decision.

Elliott and Altamirano will go head-to-head at UFC on ESPN 46 this Saturday night.

And remember, if you’re looking to place a bet on the fights this weekend, click here to sign up to BetUS using our special link and you’ll get a sign-up bonus worth up to $2,500.

Betting Odds

Since the week off, the lines have had a chance to move around. Elliott has grown as the favorite.

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Fight Breakdown

Elliott is a veteran of the division, who, normally fights with consistency despite his inconsistent record. However, due to unique personal situations, Elliott’s consistency might be tested in this fight.

Elliott is a part of Glory MMA & Fitness, James Krause’s gym. Krause has been blacklisted from MMA and the UFC specifically since his gambling scandal. Being the head coach and primary cornerman, Krause’s absence has left a void for many Glory MMA fighters. This will be Elliott’s first fight without his head coach in his camp.

Additionally, Elliott recently tweeted that his ex-wife (Gina Mazany) was cheating on him with Elliott’s long-time friend and teammate Kevin Croom since and including his wedding night.

Normally, fighter’s personal lives don’t impact my handicap or breakdown; but, given the unique nature of Elliott’s personal challenges and the direct connection to his gym and training, both seem relevant.

Inside the cage, Elliott weaponizes cardio and pressure through awkward striking and gritty wrestling to, often, fight to a close decision. Elliott has a herky-jerky striking style that keeps opponents off-beat and make countering him difficult. He likes to fight off his front foot and is capable of landing all of his weapons- hands, knees, elbows, and kicks. Beyond his unique striking, Elliott is a solid wrestler who will regularly shoot takedowns or clinch and look for trips.

His wrestling is more suited to expose poor wrestlers than has a primary weapon of attack and his style is centered around mat returns more than getting and advancing position. Both his striking and wrestling are designed to put his opponent on their back foot, exhaust them for 15 minutes, and make the fight ugly.

His biggest detriment in the cage, and the reason for many of his losses, is Elliott’s inability to strategically use the brake pedal. He constantly goes forward, even when his opponent is capable of landing clean counters or defensively grappling. Elliott’s specific issue is getting reversed from the clinch or on the mat by a superior grappler and giving up his neck in the process. His fights typically boil down to whether or not his opponent can fight a hard 15 minutes or capitalize on a mistake. If neither is true, Elliott can win.

Altamirano, who fought just two months ago, is an inconsistent fighter who fights like a young and inexperienced fighter. But, at 32, Altamirano needs to sure up his style to crack the rankings. In some of his fights, Altamirano has shown poor takedown defense and a willingness to hunt for defensive submissions from his guard. Then, more recently, Altamirano showed improved takedown defense and offensive wrestling of his own.

His offensive striking is a combination of basic boxing with a solid calf kick and sudden spinning attacks. When he boxes, Altamirano tends to move linearly, and savvy counter strikers can cut an angle and counter him cleanly. When he spins, Altamirano he tends to hit a lot of air and get caught off balance.

Furthermore, he has a bad habit of ducking after his combinations, primed for an uppercut counter. His pressure and variety have resulted in moderate success against lower competition but against any level of UFC fighter, Altamirano will be consistently hittable.

Prediction and Best Bet

This fight, on paper, is between a consistent fighter with limited upside against an inconsistent fighter with unknown upside. If Elliott didn’t have his outside-the-cage issues going on, I’m convinced he would be north of a 2:1 favorite and I would confidently pick him. Elliott has the wrestling to exploit Altamirano’s poor takedown defense, the cardio to test the inexperienced fighter, and the pressure striking to crash distance.

However, the outside the cage issues and the questions around his training give me pause. Still, I’ll side with Elliott in this one. I specifically like him by decision since he won via finish in 2017 and I expect a wrestle-heavy approach.

Best Bet: Elliott to win by decision (Bet now at BetUS)

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