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Prediction: Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama | UFC on ESPN 41

Prediction: Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama | UFC on ESPN 41

Prediction: Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama | UFC on ESPN 41 3

28-year-old Glory MMA featherweight prospect David “Silent Assassin” Omana enters the octagon with a 10-1 professional record. All 10 of his wins have come by finish, with six knockouts and four submissions. His sole loss was a unanimous decision in his UFC debut.

Nate “The Train” Landwehr is a 34-year-old fighter who excels when a mixed martial arts match turns into a fist fight. He is 15-4 professionally with eight knockout wins. His four losses are split among two knockouts, one submission, and one decision.

This fight could end in round 1 or be a knock’em down, drag’em out three-round war that wins the fight of the night. Don’t miss this one.

Betting Odds

Onama is an exciting prospect and is being bet as such over the veteran Landwehr.

Breakdown

Onama entered the UFC with a lot of hype and expectation but was derailed when he ran into a pressure-heavy wrestler. The reasons for excitement around Onama are a long list, he strikes with good power from both stances, has a solid kickboxing game with a variety of fundamental and athletic combinations, wrestles well, again with fundamentals and athleticism, and can secure a submission with a variety of chokes, paces himself well while still maintaining volume, and appears comfortable however the fight goes.

In short, Onama is a well-rounded fighter with the skillset and natural talent to end the fight no matter where the fight goes. Despite the complete game of Onama, he is not without flaws. His striking defense is a bit of a concern; he tends to back straight up on the center line, pin himself against the cage, and absorb a high volume of strikes when facing volume or pressure fighters. While his own striking is crisp and has pop with good volume, he can overextend at times and be slow to bring his hands back.

From what I’ve seen, Onama has the physical length to fight with a more measured approach, keeping his opponents at a safer range; however, the kid is tough and tries to find the finish every time he steps into the octagon. This sometimes results in Onama ignoring his technical and length advantage in favor of a more exciting brawl. While this style may not be advisable on paper, it’s hard to argue against someone with a 10-1 record and ten finishes.

Landwehr is an old-school UFC fighter who tends to fight with a kill or be killed mindset. He has a viral quote where he says, “if I don’t lose, I’m probably gonna win.” Now I’m sure Landwehr was being tongue in cheek when he said that, but it does exemplify his fight style. Landwehr is going to immediately walk forward as soon as the bell sounds and not stop pressuring forward until the fight ends. If he doesn’t get caught, aka lose, his pressure style often results in him overwhelming his opponent en route to a win.

Landwehr’s aggression, where he pushes forward, inviting a blow-for-blow brawl, is exciting but leaves him open to being countered cleanly. Landwehr has been finished in two of his last four fights, both in the first round. In fights where “The Train” survives the first round, he seems to get better each and every round. Landwehr’s constant pressure exhausts opponents, and if they can’t put him away, he keeps coming forward, draining their gas tank and will in the octagon.

Landwehr’s game revolves around outlasting his opponents, but he is not strictly a punching bag; he boxes well and lands with his own power shots, often during 50/50 exchanges where his opponent is most vulnerable. If you like fights where guys stand toe to toe until the round ends or someone hits the canvas, you’ll like Landwehr’s fight style.

Prediction

As much as I respect, appreciate, and am entertained by Landwehr, he is outgunned against Onama. Onama has all the skills necessary to not only be ranked but climb the rankings of a very competitive division. He should be faster, land with more volume, and offer a more well-rounded game on Saturday night.

So long as Onama continues to grow, specifically with bringing his hands back more quickly and circling off the cage more often, I like him to continue to win. Onama to get the finish is the play, but I also like a little sprinkle on a submission. Landwehr, at times, will rush forward with his neck exposed when he’s frustrated, and Onama has a sneak choke game.

Pick: Onama to win inside the distance (Bet now on BetUS)

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