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Prediction: Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green | UFC Fight Night 216 odds

Prediction: Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green | UFC Fight Night 216 odds

Drew Dober

Drew Dober is a 34-year-old charismatic lightweight who doesn’t know how to do anything other than put on fight of the night worthy fights or win performance bonuses. He has been in the UFC since 2013 and his career is riddled with early finishes and fan-friendly brawls. He really turned a corner in 2019, adding more power to his game, and has gone 5-2 since then.

Bobby Green 36, has been in the UFC since 2013; and, like Dober, has a career full of entertaining fights, even if most have gone to decision. Green is 2-3 in his last 5, but 2 of those losses came to the now champion, Makhachev, and top 5 lightweight, Fiziev.

Betting Odds

  • Drew Dober: -155
  • Bobby Green: +135

Fight Breakdown

Dober is the poster child of honing explosive athletic ability into a focused fight plan….at least until he gets cracked cleanly. Dober is insanely powerful and likes to bulldoze forward with tactical flurries. He’s progressed from blitz attacks with wild punches to a similarly aggressive style but more technical combinations. When he lands, Dober lands to shut the lights out and often accomplishes his goal. He has shown improvements in timing and strategy rather than relying on random volume and his top tier chin. Physically, Dober has a jawline that can be picked out of a lineup; and, in a fight, his jaw can save him from some serious damage. At times, Dober can rely too heavily on his toughness and ability to absorb shots because he tends to move forward always, even when moving back to laterally would be more advantageous. While he has become more technical, don’t let that fool you, Dober still excels in a brawl. Beyond his striking, Dober is also a willing wrestler with a strong foundation of fundamentals. He can, often unexpectedly, lace up his wrestling shoes and shoot a power double leg with success. Because of his athleticism, wrestling skills, and that his opponents have to worry about his power, unless Dober chooses not to use it or he faces a highly skilled defensive wrestler, if he wants the fight to hit the mat, it often does. Dober’s only real issues and reason for him, currently, being unranked are his striking and grappling defense. Dober has struggled against more technical fighters who can avoid the brawl; and, instead, pick their shots strategically while exiting safely. Volume and accuracy often beat power and Dober tends to lean more on the latter.

Green is a unique but highly skilled striker. Like Mayweather in boxing, Green likes to fight with his hands low and rely on shoulder rolls to block incoming strikes. Like Dober, Green has a hell of a chin. He also has remarkable reflexes and an ability to just barely avoid his opponent’s offensive attacks. That is exactly what boxers are supposed to do: use as little movement as possible to avoid getting hit. But because a shoulder roll can often look like a clean land, Green has been the victim of some questionable split decisions. It sometimes appears like Green is getting clipped even though he is avoiding or blocking the shots which makes it look like he lost a fight. After years of close fights going against him, Green has recently amped up the volume in round 3. Early in the fight, Green fights behind his jab; which, because of his low hands, comes from an odd angle below the eyeline of his opponent and lands with a high rate of success. He follows up a jab-heavy approach with fast combinations that sting his opponent. Then, in round 3, Green is more willing to engage in the pocket rather than out at range because he tries to seal the win. In these in-the-pocket exchanges, Green’s hand speed and reflexes are on full display. Beyond his striking, Green is a stout wrestler and grappler, adept at keeping the fight standing. His biggest issues are when opponents can match his speed, volume, or chop his heavy lead leg. Dober will unlikely be able to match his speed or volume but kicks like a mule; so, Green will have to have an answer for those incoming leg kicks.

Betting Odds

Drew Dober is skilled, dangerous, and has an unreal chin. I’m high on him and believe he will be a ranked fighter once again. However, he has fought back-to-back brawlers who played right into his prefered blow-for-blow style. The last time Dober fought a technical striker with a chin, he lost. Green, despite his age and slightly salty record, is a highly technical boxer, has elite evasive abilities with a great chin also, and is a stout defensive wrestler. So long as he can avoid the leg kicks and huge power from Dober, Green has every tool he needs to stick’n move his way to victory. This fight is razor thin, so, I wouldn’t put big bucks on it; but, I like the underdog in Green to beat power with technique.

Pick: Green to win by decision

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