Norma Dumont returns to the UFC octagon this weekend in an attempt to turn a 2-fight win streak into three. Her opponent opposite her will be Chelsea Chandler, fresh off of her winning UFC debut last fall.
Dumont is a Sanda specialist out of Brazil, having ticked off solid wins for her UFC resume, including Karol Rosa, Aspen Ladd, Felicia Spencer, and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Her pro record stands at nine wins and two losses.
Chandler, on the other hand, is an Invicta FC alumni with a pro record of 5-1, three of which wins have come by stoppage within the first two rounds.
Betting Odds
Oddsmakers have found it somewhat difficult to pick as the two women sit at just a factor of -10 difference.
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Fight Breakdown
Norma Dumont is already one of the most impressive striking specialists to be rising through the women’s divisions, especially at 145 lbs. Her Sanda style involves a lot of outside movement, where she is constantly bouncing in her stance almost point-karate-like. To start her fights she is very patient, range seeking with her jab and lead kicks, usually from conventional but often switching to use the lead right leg as well. Earlier on, the biggest criticism of Dumont was being too safe or to clean a fighter, poking and prodding from outside without taking many risks, and looking uncomfortable if the fight got gritty.
She has since evolved drastically, committing far more to her power cross when she pulls her opponent in with the jab, and entertaining the exchanges inside more often. She has also immensely improved her clinch game, landing knees on breaks, and getting to double under on the cage while winning the head battle quickly. Although she is very good at circling away to counter or circling in with her jab, she does burst in on a straight line, eating a punch while she throws her cross, essentially clashing, rather than cut quick angles to enter. At the end of exchanges, watch for her to switch stance with a check right hook.
Chandler is an upright southpaw boxer with a low lead and high left guard. She is a very mean fighter, which makes things very interesting against the polished Dumont. She likes to jump between a check right hook and a long left cross and both these weapons carry a lot of power. She is also relentless in moving forward and being in her opponent’s face, wearing them down pushing them to the cage or drawing out a bad level change.
Chandler is one of the best at 145lb at stuffing and reversing takedowns to end up on top, her pressure on the feet forces her opponents to shoot moving backward which makes this much easier. If she ends up in the guard she has tremendous submission defense while she punishes the attempts with punches from the top, but ultimately she wants to get to mount and do more of the same. Although a purple belt under Cesar Gracie, Chandler would typically rather ground and pound her way to the finish rather than chase a submission. Norma Dumont has solid clinch grappling and top game but her bottom game is largely just defensive. If Chandler can establish control, it will be very difficult to Dumont to escape, and this could be trouble for her if it happens earlier in one of the rounds.
Prediction
I do think that Dumont will mostly dictate whether the fight stays standing or ends on the mat. Both women’s best takedowns come from the clinch, securing the body lock and tripping out the leg to drag their opponents down. I do not see Dumont shooting a desperation shot and getting reversed, instead trying to maintain her distance and pick at Chandler with kicks and long straights.
Chandler has to make things as dirty as possible; she primarily boxes, so she will have trouble at kicking range but if she can walk Dumont to the cage and force her to exchange for prolonged times in the pocket she has a big advantage. The space she has to bridge in order to get there, however, is where she is really in danger as Dumont is so good at kicking, giving up ground, and sniping with that rear straight. I think the footwork, kicks, and counters of Dumont get the job done.
Pick: Norma Dumont to win (-120)
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