In an electrifying face-off, middleweight stars Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier will step into the Octagon, each with a gleaming opportunity to move one step closer to the title shot.
This matchup will headline the UFC Vegas 75 card that is overflowing with intriguing fights, the predictions for which you can find on our UFC predictions page. This encounter is set to broadcast on ESPN and ESPN+, with the main card set to kick off at 10 pm ET / 7 pm PT.
And if you’re looking to place a bet this weekend, we’ve laid out an in-depth analysis of the betting odds, giving you tips and insights to make the most informed decisions. Don’t forget to take advantage of our exclusive link to sign up to BetUS and secure a special sign-up bonus.
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Betting Odds
The odds for both fighters stand at -115, symbolizing the highly competitive nature of this matchup. Both fighters are coming into this with a lot to prove and a hunger for victory, making this a balanced fight, where the scales could tip in either direction.
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Marvin Vettori, a ferocious competitor with an impressive record, brings a blend of strategic acumen and intense pressure that could wear down even the toughest opponents. His volume and pace are key assets, and if played correctly, could well see him outlasting Cannonier in this clash.
On the other hand, Jared Cannonier, renowned for his sharp striking and innate power, has the reach and technical prowess to land significant strikes early on. His ability to use his power advantage effectively when he lands, combined with his excellent takedown defense, makes him a formidable adversary for Vettori.
Our staff predictions below provide more detailed insights into how this fight could unfold. But one thing’s for sure, when Vettori and Cannonier lock horns, it’s going to be a bout you won’t want to miss. Whether you’re a fan, a bettor, or both, this fight promises to be one for the books.
Staff Predictions
Braeden Arbour
This fight is so interesting in the sense that they are just such different fighters. Marvin Vettori, although enjoying one inch of height will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage. That gives him even more prerogative to pressure forwarded and get inside the pocket of Cannonier, which is already assumedly part of the game plan as Vettori’s volume and pace is his biggest asset.
Vettori should be looking to play the long game, at times he is the less technical and sharp of the two men, but his ability to string long combinations together, chip away at the body and legs of Cannonier and mix in the takedowns will do well to wear down the larger and more explosive Cannonier. In his most recent performance we saw Vettori have a lot of success hand fighting the lead hand of Roman Dolidze, circling outside and landing that right calf kick, investing in chopping down the calf of Cannonier would be a smart move as well.
Cannonier can use that reach and sharpness in his striking to have a lot of success early on. He will have to pace himself to keep up later in the fight, but for the first two or three rounds expect a really tight defense in the high guard and movement of Cannonier. He does a good job shelling up, and although he has a lower output than Vettori he is more effective when he does land, both due to his shot selection in innate power advantage. If Vettori comes crashing in and looking to clinch up, Cannonier has tremendous elbows inside, that he uses to intercept oncoming traffic, look for him to get Vettori rolling through punches and into elbows and knees as he chases Cannonier.
One of the unusual aspects of Marvin Vettori is he tends to have less success completing takedowns in the cage rather than out in the open. Jared Cannonier is supremely powerful and has good takedown defense on a technical level if he can read the takedown coming. On the fence expect Vettori to have major difficulty in completing each step, as the exchange is slower. However, if Vettori finds himself being pushed back, heel to fence, his ability to burst through, meet the hips of an oncoming Cannonier and blast the takedown towards the center of the octagon he may be able to maintain control over Cannonier and chalk up mat time.
Everyone seems they cannot be finished inside the distance until they are, but so far Vettori has proven he has an unusually strong chin, so it’s fair to expect Cannonier’s night to be at least a bit longer and grittier than usual. I do expect Vettori to be able to, with a combination of pressure and mixing everything together to wear out Cannonier between constantly dealing with volume strikes and having to respect the takedown threat.
Pick: Marvin Vettori to win (-115 odds at BetUS)
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Michael Pounders
Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori is possibly the most singularly focused fighter on the entire roster. The 29-year-old #3 ranked middleweight is not necessarily focused on UFC gold; rather, based on his interview, Vettori wants to beat the current champion more than he wants the championship himself. Vettori has a unique fixation on Adesanya and truly believes he not only has what it takes to beat him but believes he already has, in his first fight with the champ, a split decision loss.
I bring his mindset up in this breakdown for two reasons. First, the positive, Vettori’s animalistic desire to fight Adesanya for a third time motivates him to stay near the top of the rankings. He’s only lost to Adesanya and Whittaker since 2016. Second, the negative, Vettori might be too focused on his personal goal and look beyond the opponent in the cage with him.
We saw this last fight where Vettori had an uncharacteristically poor performance despite getting the nod in his last fight. When he’s focused on the task at hand, Vettori is about as tough of a fight as you can find in the middleweight division. He is one of the most durable fighters on the entire roster, can push a consistently high volume for 3 and 5 rounds, and has a strong clinch and wrestling game that often gives him an edge in a striking-heavy division.
The issues Vettori faces center around his lack of power, rarely being the fighter to deal the most damage or threaten a finish, and his predictable “walk through fire” approach to a fight. As Adesanya and Whittaker showed, highly skilled strikers can use Vettori’s perpetual linear movement against him, countering and cutting angles, forcing Vettori to chase. However, Adesanya and Whittaker are two of the top strikers in the UFC, so, as Vettori’s record suggests, that game plan is difficult to replicate.
Cannonier has made a career on timing and landing that one big shot. He is hyper-athletic, powerful, and explosive. But, he strikes with frustrating infrequency and can be caught staring in fights rather than attacking. When he does attack, Cannonier often lands with accuracy and deadly power.
He is best known for his crazy powerful leg kicks which he can effortlessly and quickly land to the calf, body, or head of an opponent. While his kicks can likely be heard several counties over, Cannonier’s hands are no joke as well. He, again, patiently waits to unload but when he does he makes the most of it. Given he often has the edge in striking power, speed, and ability, opponents have tried to get him down to the mat and to neutralize his best assets. Most who have tried have failed at getting the big man down; but, more recently, possibly do to age, Cannonier has found himself on the mat more than he’s used to. Even the point-fighting Strickland was able to land a takedown on Cannonier.
The other issue in Cannonier’s game, alluded to above, is his passivity when striking; he has lost rounds and fights because of a lack of any real volume. He often spends so much time circling, feinting, and moving to try and trap his opponent that important minutes tick away at the clock; and, unless he lands that one perfect strike, he drops the round. Because of his power, though, Cannonier is always dangerous and is in every fight until the final round hits 0:00.
I’ve been burned writing this in the past and I’ve been proven right at times too, but, I’ll write it again: I am truly surprised by the line in this one, I expected Vettori to be north of a -150 favorite. “The Italian Dream” has the exact skillset that has caused Cannonier issues in the past and Cannonier’s typical path to victory, huge power shots, seem unreliable given the cement chin of Vettori. I expect Vettori to use volume striking, relentless pressure, an uncanny ability to walk through power shots, and a strong clinch game to beat Cannonier for all 5 rounds. I don’t expect Cannonier’s low volume and intermittent power shots to sway the judges, let alone for at least 3 of the 5 rounds. I like Vettori to win and by decision too; but, since the odds are so close between money line and prop, I’ll stick with Vettori straight.
Best Bet: Marvin Vettori to win (-115 odds at BetUS)
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Joe Pounders
Marvin Vettori is a talented top-5 middleweight with complete focus and determination on becoming champion. Tenacity to be the best translates to Vettori’s fight game, as he is a true warrior in the octagon who is seemingly impossible to put away. Knowing this, he fights with freedom and pressure, thus allowing him to find success when and where he seeks compared to fighting his opponent’s fight, a tactic that is very important when trying to beat the top echelon in the world.
The skills of Vettori, beyond durability, are a blend of wrestling underrated, improved striking. The latter has been formulated by his training in Thailand, where, he works with world-renowned Muay Thai coaches to help him fight better at range with a thundering left kick, and then in the clinch, land sharp knees and elbows. The improvement in technical striking was displayed against Paulo Costa, where, he went toe-to-toe with the extremely dangerous Brazilian. But, the necessary growth in continual improvement was shown just one fight later against arguable top 10 pound-for-pound opponent, Robert Whittaker. The improvement needed for Vettori was him needing to be able to handle lightning-quick movement coupled with elite takedown defense, but, the test here is not that, rather, a repeat test of Costa — elite power threat with solid takedown defense. Because Vettori has passed this test coupled with him having elite work ethic in training, he should feel very confident in this fight.
Confidence is something Jared Cannonier has earned in his own right. Similarly to Vettori, Cannonier has worked hard on his technical ability to become a top 5 challenger by way of becoming a well-rounded fighter. Touting Cannonier as well-rounded may seem odd at first glance knowing he is a predominate power puncher who has a main affinity for striking, but when you dive into his recent fights, you see strong improvement with grappling defense, and even, an ability to leverage his natural strength to secure a takedown himself. In this fight, the well-rounded game will likely be tested once more, and it will likely be with grappling defense – takedown and clinch – and if he can pass the test, his power can begin to flow because Vettori will certainly be willing to wear one to give one himself.
I expect this fight to be very close. Both men have won razor-thin fights against elite top 5 challengers in recent memory, and this fight should be no different, as evidenced by the -110 odds. While the case, I do favor Vettori in nearly every category besides power. On the feet, he has shown great improvement with range striking and his chin should allow him to equal damage when in close, and for grappling, while his wrestling is not to the level of elite Dagesteans, it is a level ahead of Cannonier albeit good in his own right. Ultimately, I expect Vettori to treat this fight as Costa 2.0, and in that fight, he found success in repeatedly throwing the left leg – body against Costa but leg here – and then, winning the output battle with punches. Knowing Cannonier is quite durable, I am electing to go Vettori by decision.
Best Bet: Marvin Vettori to win by decision (+150)
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