UFC 290 will play host to a number of incredible matchups on Saturday, though there are few as worthy of the term “banger” as the lightweight bout scheduled between Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker.
Two of the longest fighters at 155 lbs, both excel at long-range striking but are far from afraid to get into slugfests in tight. The #11 and #12 ranked fighters, respectively, there’s a ton of talent above them with title aspirations, and there’s no better platform to show the fans and matchmakers they belong in the mix than International Fight Week.
Hooker has become known for his wars and getting into big striking exchanges, while Turner’s more of a patient fighter who will wait for his opponents to make a mistake or rush in and he’ll catch them with heavy hands and kicks. Both are proficient on the ground and although wrestling could play a major key, I’m hoping to see the two standing and striking for as long as possible.
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Betting Odds
The odds currently favor the younger, larger of the two in this one; Turner has had more success lately and with Hooker taking so much damage throughout his career, it’s not a surprise to see Jalin as such a heavy favorite.
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Fight Breakdown
Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker is the definition of a veteran at 155 lbs, fighting some of the best the division has had to offer. With fights against Makhachev, Chandler, Poirier, Gilbert Burns, Arnold Allen, and more, he’s seen it all inside the octagon. He’s been on a bit of a rough stretch since his loss to Poirier in 2020 but is coming off an impressive win over submission specialist Claudio Puelles and wants to keep that momentum going this weekend.
Hooker’s a long-range striker with a great jab and footwork to keep himself off the power side of his opponent to avoid counters. He’ll switch stances, but definitely favors orthodox where he can blast kicks to the body and leg. He attacks the leg and body just as much as the head with boxing, kicks and knees from both sides. His knees are extremely well-timed vs wrestlers as they try to enter for takedowns, but he also possesses nasty knees in the clinch.
His jab is used often for finding range, throwing off his opponent’s timing and setting up the right hand that shoots straight down the middle. He doesn’t throw at blistering speeds and isn’t a one-punch knockout type of striker, but he has very accurate hands and kicks to land flush and deal consistent damage over time. His right kick blends well with his knees as he will throw teeps, front kicks to the body and slapping calf kicks which will chamber identically to his knee strikes, making it harder for his opponent to understand what may be coming.
Dan has underrated wrestling as he has found a lot of success attacking double-leg and single-leg, high-crotch takedowns. On the ground, he has good top pressure and attacks submissions effectively, even from his back. He displayed his submission defense most recently against Claudio Puelles, but did fall victim to a loss by Kimura against Makhachev.
Hooker’s weaknesses lie in his striking defense. Over years of fighting and wars against top level fighters (including his classic slugfest against Poirier), his chin has diminished and has really affected his success. He keeps his hands low which leaves him very hittable as he throws his slower, more methodical strikes and he sinks into his power shots which has left him late to the punch in flurries when his opponent is willing to throw down in the pocket. In his earlier days, this was a part of the game plan and he would use these opportunities to dig nasty hooks into the body and head, but the shots hit him a little harder at this stage of his career.
Jalin Turner, similar to his opponent, is a long-range striker that uses his jab and cross well to keep distance. At 13-6 in his pro career, ‘The Tarantula’ doesn’t have a boastful record that some of the other top-end prospects will have, but make no mistake, he’s as talented as any undefeated prospect at lightweight – if we can even still deem him a prospect and not a contender.
Turner has very quick hands with a lot of power that is capable of dropping opponents in one shot or in combo. He doesn’t have a super high output of strikes, but he’s accurate and picks his shots very well to attack openings. His best weapon on the feet is his right hand, mainly from the southpaw stance though he’ll throw it as a cross from orthodox as well. He is lightning-quick with that right hook from southpaw and it lands very heavily. He has a stiff left hand and can sit people down with it from southpaw as well to give him a dangerous arsenal of finishing punches. Mixed in with the slick counters and combos are kicks that will target the body mostly but will also go to the head and leg. He likes the front kick to the body with the right leg from southpaw and will chain the right high kick once it starts landing.
Jalin has seemed to be hittable on the feet thus far in the UFC as he looks slow to react to quick entries with strikes. Oftentimes he won’t react until the strike lands and will fire right back but against powerful punchers, he’s open for some big shots. He shows the same problem with takedown attempts too. When he’s taken down, his opponent is able to time him and get in deep on a single or double leg and he’s dumped before he can react. He’s shown a good ability to get back to his feet, even against a high level wrestler like Mateusz Gamrot, but he suffered four takedowns for 6:52 of control time in that one which lost him the decision.
Though his wrestling can be lackluster, he knows how to utilize his long frame on the ground to attack submissions. His long limbs make guillotines, triangles, etc. a real problem when he’s on his back and he can use these to assist him in getting back to his feet.
Prediction
Though Dan Hooker is not a wrestler by trade, I think his best path to victory will be to utilize his wrestling and top control to wear on Turner, similar to how Gamrot was able to beat him. Turner’s length and counterstriking will likely negate a lot of Hooker’s best attacks. Dan likes to throw a lot of knees and right kicks against southpaws to force the left hand to block and not throw, but Turner’s right hook is so quick and hits so hard, he’ll have a weapon to be confident in to fire back with. Hooker’s long, accurate striking is great for distance control and sticking his opponent, but Jalin’s jab is just as accurate with more speed and power behind it (not to mention Hooker will be at a rare reach disadvantage). Hooker’s low guard and willingness to get hit will not serve him well in the striking exchanges against Turner, but it may be of use to enter for takedowns. As Jalin throws his strikes, he becomes much easier to takedown as Gamrot was able to time him on multiple occasions to dump him.
Turner’s weakness has shown to be his takedown defense, however he’s looked better and better at returning to his feet while taking little damage or being in danger of submissions. Hooker loves to look for the back and other submission opportunities, so the grappling realm will be a big key for the winner of this matchup.
With more experience building for Turner – especially from a three round bout against Gamrot – he’s going to look better and better at stuffing takedowns and preventing opponent’s from getting to his hips. His struggles come most often when guys are able to explode into the takedown attempt and time him on his striking, but if Hooker is going to go for takedowns, I don’t see them being fast enough to catch The Tarantula off-guard. On the feet, Hooker will have a higher output than Turner, but this may play into the hand of Jalin as Dan’s shots don’t often pack a lot of power until he gets in tight and is able to sit down on his hooks. This can leave counter opportunities at range where Jalin is fast and powerful with his ones and twos. If Hooker enters the pocket, Turner is a sniper with the right hook and will catch him with it as he enters.
Anything can happen in the UFC and Hooker may be able to outpace Turner on the feet and overwhelm him with strikes before clinching or shooting and getting a takedown. Some ground control there could win him the round and force Turner to fight from behind and potentially gas, giving Hooker the green-light to continue to pour on the pressure and inevitably the fight. I like Turner’s chances of being able to thwart that pressure from Hooker with his own straight shots and kicks. That’ll force Dan to enter into range to land where I see Jalin being first to the target more often than not with his hooks. I expect Turner to be ready for the takedowns of Hooker and, if he can’t stuff them, get back to his feet quickly to prevent being controlled for too long and letting rounds slip away as he did against Gamrot. Hooker’s chin is far from its prime though his fighting style hasn’t adjusted much to account for that, so a knockout is firmly on the table. Given the submission ability of Turner, I like him to win inside the distance regardless of method of finish.
Best bet: Jalin Turner to win inside the distance (-170 at BetUS)
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