Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown prediction | UFC 284 odds
Jack Della Maddalena will get a chance to perform in front of his home country when he takes on Randy Brown in Perth, Australia. The boxing phenom of the UFC started his pro career with two losses but has since gone a perfect 13 fights showcasing his technical and accurate punching style.
His opponent, Randy Brown represents the United States and Jamaica in the octagon. He is a veteran of 14 UFC fights having beaten the likes of Fransisco Trinaldo, Khaos Williams, Bryan Barberena and Mickey Gall over his tenure.
In just his fourth UFC bout, Della Maddalena will walk into the octagon as the substantial favorite over Randy Brown.
- Jack Della Maddelena: -333
- Randy Brown: +246
Every fighter tasked with facing Randy Brown has to figure out the puzzle that is his reach. At 73 inches, Della Maddalena will be at a 5-inch reach disadvantage to Randy Brown’s 78. Brown uses this very well, beginning his fights by prodding with the left jab, a slap hook, or simply a straight arm post. He will also hop kick with a lead sidekick to stop his opponents in their tracks as they try to make ground.
His activity with the lead weapons is what opens up his power attacks. He will double or triple his lead jabs and hooks to circle his opponents into his right head kick or right cross. Against the southpaw Della Maddalena, both men will have their opportunities to land the power kick from the rear. Brown also sets up his right hand behind his snapping right teep kick, and utilizing his kicks will be a massive weapon against the predominantly boxing based Australian.
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For Della Maddalena, he has to figure out how to get inside. One of the ways that Brown’s last opponent, Trinaldo did this successfully was by starting his combinations to the body and finishing upstairs. UFC commentator Dominick Cruz likens this to “claiming the ladder”, which works because throwing to the head allows the taller Brown to lean and counter over the top. Della Maddalena is one of the most ferocious and accurate body punchers in the UFC today, so fighting behind his right cross to the body and left liver hook is a good idea. For both men investing in the legs is also a smart move as Della Maddalena shifts a lot of weight forward as he counters and Randy Brown often slips and weaves over one leg or another.
In terms of grappling, expect Randy Brown to be the one shooting but if Della Maddelena connects he will follow into the top position. Brown is a brown belt on the mat, but is much more dangerous than your average fighter of the level, as he has tremendous front chokes, especially his guillotines from odd angles with his long arms. His bottom game is not particularly dangerous but he makes it extremely difficult to get off any real damage from the top, as he is constantly controlling posture and throwing up just enough submission threats to deter any real ground and pound. Della Maddalena is not the strongest top player but will allow his opponents to scramble back up into his Thai clinch where he lands devastating knees. He also lands these same knees as opponents slip his punches when striking from a distance.
Prediction and Betting Guide
Both men have a very good chance against one another. With their clash of styles, it’s very much who implements the best game plan, and how consistently successful they can be at doing so. Brown should keep the fight on the outside, lean into his superior kicking game and give room anytime it looks like Della Maddalena starts to gain momentum with his combinations. This is obviously easier said than done, especially if Brown can’t land something to gain enough respect and dissuade Della Maddalena from coming forward.
For Della Maddalena, it’s about working his way, utilizing his body shots to get inside and outbox Brown inside the pocket. Both men are very skilled, but what sets them apart, and most likely to oddsmakers is their power. Randy Brown can outpoint Della Maddalena if the fight goes the distance, but if Della Maddalena lands one or two good shots, it could be the start of the end. I do also think the way that Della Maddalena comes crashing forward into the clinch behind his boxing presents some potential opportunities for Brown to latch onto his neck.
If they were even odds, Della Maddalena by finish is probably the most likely outcome, however realistically the odds should be much closer than they are, so in terms of value Brown is a good choice.
Pick: Randy Brown to win (+246)