Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles prediction | UFC 291
Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim, younger brother of Ismael who lost as a sizable favorite a few weeks ago, is 25 and is 1-0 in the UFC with yet another first-round finish. As a professional, Bonfim is 14-0, with all fights ending inside the distance – 11 by submission and 7 in the first round.
Ex-Houston police, Trevin “The Problem” Giles, 30, is 7-4 in the UFC and 2-0 in his last 2 fights, albeit the most recent win a controversial split decision.
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Betting Odds
Bonfim is the second-largest favorite on the Salt Lake City Card.
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Fight Breakdown
Bonfim, much like his older brother, is an uber-prospect who has been pegged early as a fighter expected to make a run into and, possibly, through the welterweight rankings. Both Bonfim brothers are exceptional athletes and have a well-rounded skillset. Much like we see in other sports, though, Gabriel, the younger brother, tends to be considered the better overall fighter.
Younger siblings have the luxury of learning from a younger age and competing against higher levels of competition, thanks to the trail cleared by the older sibling. Gabriel has clearly benefited from his brother’s path. This is most evident in Ismael’s weakness being Gabriel’s strength. Ismael, the older brother, has a submission defense gap in his game and lost as a sizable favorite via submission.
Meanwhile, Gabriel’s best asset in the cage is his grappling, scrambling, and submission game. Gabriel Bonfim is an excellent submission artist who has a natural knack for finding the neck of his opponent from top position, from the back, and even defensively if his opponent shoots a sloppy takedown. On the feet, Gabriel is much like his brother: a hyper-athletic, fluid, and fundamentally sound striker with real pop in his punches.
He has excellent vision in the pocket and often shoulder rolls or slips strikes rather than eating or blocking them. The ability to evade strikes demonstrates his athleticism, vision, and natural flow on the feet. His issue, so far, is his youthful exuberance. There have been times in his young career where Bonfim doesn’t take the path of least resistance; and, instead, gets into a pride-filled blow-for-blow brawl. He’s won them so far; but, as he faces tougher competition, Bonfim would do well to take what is available and set his pride to the side.
Giles is a steady UFC veteran who fights with predictability and reliability. While Giles can slow a bit in fights, having lulls of inactivity, when he lets his hands go he still strikes with quick and explosive combinations that land heavy. He favors a strong backhand which he often throws veiled behind a snappy jab. He has real power and is a fighter who, when he lands, clearly hurts his opponent.
Giles is also naturally athletic and uses those natural gifts to his advantage in the cage. He is willing to fight with his hands lower to create more angles for his attacks and relies on head movement and footwork to avoid his opponent’s strikes. He also uses his natural explosive ability to land his own takedowns and stuff his opponent’s attempts. In both cases, though, Giles’s reliance on explosive movements can get him in dangerous positions against high-level grapplers who excel when an opponent takes a risk while grappling.
Both times that Giles has been submitted came via a guillotine where an opponent chokes Giles out when he shot a takedown with athleticism but neglected fundamentals. His natural strength, athleticism, and explosion make him a difficult test in the cage. But, his inconsistent technique, sometimes disregard for defense, and his lack of consistent volume make him difficult to trust as well.
Prediction
On the feet, this one will likely be close. Bonfim will likely be more fluid, the one moving forward, and the fighter who lands more volume. But, as we’ve seen before, Bonfim’s tendency to be prideful and get into momentary brawls plays perfectly into Giles’ preferred counter-heavy style and should allow Giles to land the bigger blows. Giles is also difficult to takedown so Bonfim won’t have as easy of a path to his wrestling as he’s used to.
Still, because Bonfim is so explosive and Giles can be out-techniqued on the mat, I like Bonfim to eventually land the takedown. From there, even if Giles can defend submissions, which is far from a guarantee given Giles’ tendency to try and explode to his feet and Bonfim’s high-level jiu-jitsu, Bonfim can win valuable minutes with top control.
I think this fight could be closer than the odds suggest early but expect talent to win in the end. I like Bonfim to eventually find a submission through his own wrestling or another guillotine loss for Giles if he decides to shoot.
Because I like the finish, I’m happy with the method as a straight play but much prefer Bonfim in parlays to cover a top control heavy decision win.
Best Bet: Bonfim by submission (+125)
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