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UFC 282 Prediction: Dricus du Plessis vs. Darren Till odds

UFC 282 Prediction: Dricus du Plessis vs. Darren Till odds

Dricus du Plessis

Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis has been on a roll in the UFC, with a perfect 3-0 record and two knockout wins since 2019. His professional record stands at 17-2, with seven knockout and nine submission wins. Despite being only 29 years old, Darren “The Gorilla” Till has struggled in his last five fights, going 1-4 with his only win coming by split decision and three of his four losses by finish. Those five fights did come against ranked fighters, but Till is not accustomed to losing. Prior to his recent string of losses, Till was undefeated as a professional with a 17-0 record, ten of those wins coming by knockout and two by submission.

Betting Odds

Du Plessis opened as a short favorite but has jumped up significantly as the fight has neared.

  • Dricus Du Plessis: -180
  • Darren Till: +155

Fight Breakdown

Du Plessis is a powerful and athletic kickboxer with a sneaky submission game. He has recently gained notoriety for the power in his fists, but his most impressive strikes are arguably his snapping kicks. Typically, Du Plessis fights with a high guard, protecting his chin, as he kicks with variety and emphasis from range. He is able to explode from odd angles and land powerful attacks with a variety of techniques. When Du Plessis lands one of his kicks from range, he tends to pounce on his hurt opponent like a lion on a gazelle. He follows up his kicks from range with athletic, heavy combinations that target the body and chin. If he gets his opponent stunned against the cage, Du Plessis continues to land heavy strikes until the opponent drops. Although we haven’t seen it much in the UFC, Du Plessis also has an athletic grappling game with the ability to use his natural strength to wrestle. While his grappling and wrestling skills are raw and dependent on his physical attributes, “Stillknocks” also has an underappreciated submission game. If an opponent tries to wrestle him, Du Plessis can grab a neck and finish with a guillotine choke. Offensively, Du Plessis has showcased his speed, power, athleticism, and kickboxing skills in impressive fashion. He is still raw, but has high potential. The biggest concern for Du Plessis’s backers is how he responds when he is hurt. Often, Du Plessis is the hammer and has not spent much time being the nail. As he continues to climb the rankings, he will likely have to prove that he can rally and recover at some point.

Darren Till feels like he’s been in the UFC forever, but he is still only 29. Throughout his career, Till has proven his toughness, technical striking, and reliable takedown defense. His typical approach to fights is to keep it standing and turn the sport of MMA into more of a fight. At range, Till has a sharp jab-cross combination that lands quickly and cleanly. He is highly technical offensively but can struggle defensively. His footwork is often a step slow, and his head does not regularly move off the center line. When striking at distance, Till looks to incorporate more of a volume-heavy approach, where his barrage of straight punches push his opponent backwards. Once he gets them moving back, Till transitions from a volume to a power striker. He excels offensively against the cage, where he can incorporate knees and elbows. His constant pressure, coupled with aggression and power, make him a dangerous striker. However, he has recently struggled against wrestlers and pressure strikers. While Till has respectable takedown defense, the threat of a takedown has made the already defensively porous fighter more exposed on the feet. Against pressure fighters who refuse to let Till push them on their back foot, Till has accepted the defensive position and has been backed into the cage himself. Defensively, Till still has to land those knees and elbows, but he can get trapped and tee’d off on when he is pinned against the cage. His chin, toughness, and cardio, though, have helped him survive dangerous positions and rally back in fights.

Prediction

I liked Du Plessis much more at his opening -130 line, but now that he’s up to the -200 range, I’m a bit more cautious. Du Plessis will likely have the edge in speed, power, and striking variety, but Till is a tough and battle-tested fighter who can ramp up volume as the fight progresses. I still like Du Plessis to win, but given the odds where they are, I caution people against making a large bet.

Pick: Du Plessis to win

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