Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva prediction | UFC Vegas 75
Arman Tsarukyan may be the contender brewing with the most potential in the lightweight division. At just 26 years of age, the Armenian phenom has already fought the likes of the champion Islam Makhachev, along with other notable ranked fighters, but he held his own with the best of them.
This is why going into this weekend’s Fight Night, most fans seem to be riding with Tsarukyan but he will have to get past the underdog and dangerous fighter in his own right; Joaquim Silva. The 34-year-old out of Brazil, has never offered an easy fight to prepare for. With his black belt level Jiu Jitsu, powerful Muay Thai and 8 years of UFC experience, he poses a threat anywhere the fight goes.
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Betting Odds
Silva will come into the bout as a massive underdog against Tsarukyan.
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Fight Breakdown
Silva has a lot of great skills inside his arsenal. In terms of striking, he has a great rear kick from a conventional stance, and he mixes it up well between the body and head. He also has a powerful overhand right but as with his kicks, he does tend to throw these heavier strikes one at a time instead of setting them up with combinations. If he switches to southpaw, watch for a spear jab off his right side. It is notable that Silva has struggled against some southpaws in the past and the only two fighters to knock him out were both southpaws.
While he often throws individually, he is far more active on the lead, and if his forward pressure can freeze his opponents in one place for a moment and cover up with a high guard, then you will see Silva mix up his combinations and most often end with a flying knee. One combination in particular he has success with his a beautiful overhand right, roll through to the left with double body hooks. If he has the forward momentum he is particularly good at forcing his opponents to cover up and expose the body or the centre channel to the chin. That being said, if he cannot pressure forward, he does have difficulty countering, and tends to just avoid and reset so he could end up facing a big point deficiency if he cannot make Tsarukyan move backwards.
Like Silva, Tsarukyan is known as a very well versed kicker from the outside. Expect a good exchange of body kicks early on, but Tsarukyan does a better job of throwing punches behind his kick to finish the combination. Watch especially for a shift left kick high to left straight or hook. On the opposite end, he also likes a leaping left hook to right low kick as well.
Where the biggest difference in skill lays is the wrestling. Tsarukyan is an extremely high level wrestler and scrambler so expect the shot at some point. He is very good at getting to the cage with deep undercooks and dragging the leg of his opponent out for a trip. The fact that few fighters can keep up with Tsarukyan’s scrambles, means he does not fear potentially failing a throw or takedown. This allows him to often attempt sacrifice throws, and although he more than not has success, when he does not he will chain the next two or three moves and find himself back in a preferred or neutral position quickly. Against Silva, if he does end up in a scramble it’s important that he chases the completion of the takedown, as Silva has very good initial takedown defence and good scrambles himself but will settle once his opponents establish a base on the ground. Silva has a good chance of stopping some takedowns early but as the fight wears on it becomes ever more likely we see him stuck on his back.
Prediction
There is very good reason that Arman Tsarukyan is the favorite in this fight, and although maybe it would be fair to give Silva a more than +625 shot, it’s still not enough to make him a smart pick.
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Instead to up the value on Tsarukyan look to capitalize on his recent two TKOs in his last four fights, Silva’s two KO losses in his last four fights and the likely situation of Tsarukyan baring down on Silva on the mat by round three. I would go with Tsarukyan by KO/TKO for -130.
Pick: Arman Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO (-130)