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Prediction: Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira | UFC on ESPN 41

Prediction: Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira | UFC on ESPN 41

Ariane Lipski

Two of the most dangerous women in the flyweight division, Ariane Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira, will meet in the center of the octagon at UFC on ESPN 41 this Saturday night.

Lipski, the former KSW Flyweight champion, came into the UFC in 2019 with loads of hype surrounding her. Being given Joanne Wood in her debut speaks to the level the promotion already expected from the newcomer, which ultimately led to mixed results in her first few fights. Coming off of alternating pairs of wins and losses, Lipski most recently defeated Mandy Bohm in September, looking as good as fans have ever seen her now under the tutelage of American Top Team.

To defeat the new and improved version of Lipski, Cachoeira, who is also coming off of a victory against Ji Yeon Kim, will need her full skillset and the devastating aggression she has become known for. She entered the UFC just a year before Lipski and, like her, was immediately thrown into the deep end, making her debut against the current champion Valentina Shevchenko. However, the experience only launched Cachoeira further into her career, which may also be a good tool in her pursuit of victory this weekend.

Betting Odds

With relatively close odds, those who bet $100 on the underdog Cachoeira look to receive $145 in profits should she pull off the upset.

Breakdown

Ariane Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira are both primarily strikers. Lipski comes from a Muay Thai background, while Cachoeira embodies the archetype of a ‘sprawl and brawl’ fighter. 

Lipski is much lighter on her feet, especially her lead in that fashion. She is extremely confident in her strikes and fully commits to her combinations. Her punches have tremendous snap to them and come from afar, but because they whip wide for power, she fails to land as cleanly inside when she slips in close. That being said, although she is aggressive and tends to move forward, her counters are her best shots, especially off of her slip inside. This mostly includes her straight and overhand right, but her hooks and uppercuts are also incredibly accurate.

Cachoeira stands very crouched in her stance and loads up far more weight into her punches than Lipski. While both women have shown knockdown ability in their hands, pure impact likely falls to Cachoeira more, mostly because she wings her shots and drives through completely with her grounded stance. Her stance also allows her to quickly sprawl and force her opponents to re-engage on their feet. However, the biggest knock on her style is that because she knows she has finishing capabilities in her overhand right, she goes to the well too often, to the point where it becomes predictable. Someone like Lipski, who has a wider variety of strikes, including kicks, at her disposal, will have options to counter this.

While both women are dangerous strikers, neither shy away from the ground if they need to engage. Cachoeira will far more likely defend and reset if challenged with a takedown, but if she wants to edge out a round or change up momentum, she does have a quick double leg. On the other hand, Lipski has shown a very good ability to reverse takedowns and scramble into top position when she is taken down. Both women are good in top position; Cachoeira, as one would expect, is far more concerned with landing damage than control, which means she will allow her opponents to scramble up as long as they eat punches on the way. If she can initially land in half guard, Lipski is good at cutting to side control and advancing patiently, but if caught in the closed guard gets stuck there often. On the bottom, both women have shown a lack of advanced knowledge, attempting basic sweeps but failing to go to a plan B when the fundamentals aren’t enough. Cachoeira, in particular, has gone to a desperate closed guard hoping to stand up rather than mounting much offense; however, because Lipski has gotten stuck in top position in the guard, if Cachoeira can neutralize anyone in this fashion, it could be Lipski. That being said, if able to pass the guard. Lipski absolutely holds the edge in submission ability.

Prediction

Cachoeira will always pose a threat from the opening bell to the moment the fight is over. She throws with reckless abandon with enough weight in every shot to potentially spell the end. However, Lipski is much sharper and more versatile in her striking. She may not have the ability to level change underneath Cachoeira and complete the takedown through her sprawl. Still, her ability to reverse position in scrambles and her positional ability in the clinch lead me to believe she has more options in getting the fight to the floor if she needs it than Cachoeira. Ultimately, I think she picks her apart wherever the fight goes, but she will have to brave the fire and push through some punishment.

Prediction: Ariane Lipski to win (-175 odds to BetUS)

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