Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda prediction | UFC on ESPN 46
Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres, 34, has only lost 1 fight since 2020. His overall UFC record, which has been amassed over a decade, includes 9 decision wins and 6 by way of stoppage. As for his losses, he’s been stopped six times and recorded five defeats by decision.
Daniel “The Pit” Pineda, 37, is in his second stint in the UFC. Overall, his UFC record is 5-5 with all five wins coming via finish.
Caceres and Pineda will clash this weekend at the UFC on ESPN 46 event.
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Betting Odds
Despite an extra week to impact the line, Caceres has remained steady at just south of a 2:1 favorite.
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Fight Breakdown
Caceres is a funky fighter who does well in chaos but has refined his game recently to include more traditional techniques. Caceres is a southpaw striker who moves uniquely in the cage. He is tall for the featherweight division- 5’10- and uses his height and length to amplify his movement.
Typically, Caceres will keep a long distance and look to land a variety of kicks from range while using lateral movement and sudden changes in direction to evade counterstrikes and pressure boxers. If an opponent closes the distance, Caceres typically looks to meet them in the middle and grapple rather than box in the pocket. His hands are fast and varied, like his kicks, but he doesn’t carry much power and has been rocked before.
Since he often doesn’t have the power or chin to match his opponent, the pocket is not “Bruce Leroy’s” happy place. Instead, when his kicking range is closed, Caceres looks to take the opportunity to engage in the clinch. Despite 7 submission wins, he does not typically transition from the clinch to the mat, landing less than 1 takedown per fight.
Instead. Caceres wants to again utilize his height and reach advantage in the clinch where he can gain leverage with his size and land elbows and knees with his athleticism. Then, if the opportunity presents itself, Caceres often looks to take his opponent’s back while standing to look for a submission win. In fights where Caceres can stay all the way out, at range, or all the way in, against the cage, he does very well. However, when he’s forced to fight, especially box, in the pocket, “Bruce Leeroy” struggles.
Pineda fights like a much bigger fighter than the 5’7 145-pound fighter he is. Like many 205ers and heavyweights, Pineda wants to engage in a brawl and see who drops first. All 28 of Pineda’s professional wins have come inside the distance. He carries real power in his hands and has a dangerous submission game if the fight hits the mat. Pineda’s issues, though, have historically outweighed his gifts in the UFC.
Pineda has subpar cardio, typically only able to fight dangerously for around 7 minutes. His wrestling is unreliable, landing only 24% of his takedown attempts. And, because of his stationary style and low hands, his striking is 50/50, barely over a 1:1 ratio. Basically, Pineda is a dangerous fighter for a round or round and a half and typically needs an opponent to make a mistake rather than create openings himself. If an opponent does make a mistake, Pineda has the power and submission game to capitalize on it and end the fight quickly.
Prediction and Best Bet
This one comes down to Caceres simply being the better fighter. He should be faster, more varied, more defensively sound, and a good enough defensive wrestler to keep the fight standing.
On paper, Pineda is the better submission fighter but Caceres prefers to grapple from the clinch while Pineda prefers to be on the mat; however, Pineda does not have the wrestling to get it down and Caceres’ movement will only make that more challenging.
Both men can be hit and Pineda has the better power but Caceres has a solid chin and a significant edge in cardio. If you’re going to bet on Pineda, the bet is him in round 1 since he typically has around 7 minutes of cardio. But, I think the best bet in the fight is Caceres moneyline. At -180, Caceres, in my opinion is under priced.
Best Bet: Caceres to win (-180) (Bet now at BetUS)
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