TLDR
- Rafa Garcia opened as a +125 underdog but is now favored at some books, with odds as short as +105
- Alexander Hernandez ranges from -115 to -155 favorite depending on the sportsbook
- The lightweight bout takes place April 25 at UFC Vegas 116 on Paramount+
- Experts predict the fight will go over 2.5 rounds, with Hernandez by decision at +185 as a popular pick
- Garcia averages 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes while Hernandez has taken down just 2 of his last 12 opponents
Full Card Odds
Fight Time & How to Watch
| Time Zone | Start Time |
|---|---|
| Eastern (ET) | ~10:35 PM |
| Central (CT) | ~9:35 PM |
| Mountain (MT) | ~8:35 PM |
| Pacific (PT) | ~7:35 PM |
| UK (GMT+1) | ~3:35 AM (Sun) |
| Australia AEST | ~12:35 PM (Sun) |
Where to watch: Paramount+ Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
IT ALL GOES DOWN TOMORROW 💪#UFCVegas116 is READY!
[ APRIL 25 | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/ad1baRzZ3Y
— UFC (@ufc) April 25, 2026
Sources: TheRX | TheRX | FantasyLabs | CBS Sports
The betting odds for the lightweight bout between Rafa Garcia and Alexander Hernandez have shifted dramatically in the days leading up to UFC Vegas 116 on April 25. Garcia opened the week as a betting underdog at approximately +125 but has since flipped to favorite status at several sportsbooks.
Current odds vary across different betting platforms. BetOnline lists Garcia at +105 and Hernandez at -115, while DraftKings shows Garcia at +130 and Hernandez at -155.
The fight will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas as part of a 13-fight card headlined by Aljamain Sterling versus Youssef Zalal. The entire card will air on Paramount+ starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Predictions and Analysis
Several betting experts are backing Hernandez to win by decision despite the odds movement toward Garcia. The decision line for Hernandez is listed at +185.
The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over priced at -190. Experts expect the fight to go the full 15 minutes based on both fighters’ recent performances.
Garcia brings a strong wrestling game to the matchup, averaging 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career. He has never been knocked down in the UFC, with his only career stoppage loss coming via ground-and-pound against elite wrestler Grant Dawson.
Hernandez has struggled with takedown offense in recent fights, successfully taking down just two of his last 12 opponents. However, he is known for starting fights fast and possessing strong striking power.
Fighter Strengths and Matchup Factors
The betting analysis suggests Hernandez holds an advantage in striking and takedown defense. Garcia’s path to victory likely depends on his ability to secure takedowns after Hernandez tires in later rounds.
Garcia is priced at $7,700 for DFS contests, while Hernandez comes in at $8,500. The odds shift has created value for Garcia in daily fantasy lineups according to multiple projection models.
Experts note that while Hernandez typically starts strong, Garcia has shown durability and the ability to win second and third rounds through wrestling. Garcia’s takedown ability could become more effective as the fight progresses.
The lightweight matchup represents one of several competitive bouts on the UFC Vegas 116 card. The event marks another return to the UFC Apex facility, which has hosted numerous Fight Night events.
Bettors have clearly moved money toward Garcia throughout fight week, causing the line movement from underdog to favorite at multiple books. The longest current odds available for Garcia stand at +130 on DraftKings, while the shortest are +105 at other sportsbooks.
